Welcome to Bowl Prediction Central, where no obstacle stands in the way of instant postseason picks.
The transfer portal is in full swing, the coaching carousel will continue well into January and the NFL draft in the spring looms for promising players. But all that matters is that the bowl matchups are set -- all 42 of them -- including the final four-team College Football Playoff field and the New Year's Six.
The objective here is to take the known information about the teams, estimate their personnel and coaching landscape as best as possible, assess game location, motivation and other factors and spit out predictions hours after the pairings are set.
Crazy? Perhaps. Prophetic? Hope so (but don't bet your life savings on it). Fun? Undeniably.
Last year's predictions had some big misses -- let's not talk about the New Year's Six forecast -- but also a few accurate score predictions. And now there's a new batch of bowls to do better. To be clear, these picks are straight up, not against the spread.
After a controversial Selection Day, we have two excellent CFP semifinals on tap, as well as notable New Year's Six matchups like Georgia-Florida State and Ohio State-Missouri. Other notable bowl matchups include Arizona-Oklahoma in the Alamo Bowl, Oregon State-Notre Dame in El Paso, and Kansas State-NC State in the venerable Pop-Tarts Bowl. The next six weeks should be endlessly entertaining. OK, it's time for the predictions.
Ready, set, bowl!
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College Football Playoff schedule
Monday, Jan. 1
CFP Semifinal at the Rose Bowl Game Presented by Prudential
No. 4 Alabama vs. No. 1 Michigan
Rose Bowl (Pasadena, California)
5 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Alabama is a flawed but ascending team, as it displayed by controlling the SEC championship game against then-No. 1 Georgia. Quarterback Jalen Milroe is among the nation's most improved players and will attack downfield against a Michigan secondary led by takeaway-generating star Mike Sainristil.
The disparity among the two teams in the postseason is too much to ignore. Alabama's Nick Saban has won seven national titles and boasts a 9-4 record in CFP games. Michigan's Jim Harbaugh, like his college coach, Bo Schembechler, has been much better in the Big Ten than on the national stage, going 1-6 in bowls and 0-2 in the CFP. Milroe leads a big fourth quarter as the Tide roll on to the national title game.
Prediction: Alabama 31, Michigan 23
CFP Semifinal at the Allstate Sugar Bowl
No. 3 Texas vs. No. 2 Washington
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
8:45 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Washington coach Kalen DeBoer gives his initial thoughts on his team's College Football Playoff matchup against Texas.
Who would have thought the 2022 Alamo Bowl was a preview of a CFP semifinal the following year? Washington won that night in San Antonio and hasn't lost since, a remarkable streak of 20 consecutive games under second-year coach Kalen DeBoer. Both teams had some tense moments in late October and early November, but pushed through to capture league titles. The matchup favors Washington, a pass-centric team that can attack an iffy Texas secondary with Rome Odunze and arguably the nation's best receiving corps, plus a quarterback in Michael Penix Jr. who should be even healthier for the game.
Texas' defensive line is capable of controlling the game, but Washington doesn't put a huge emphasis on between-the-tackles rushing. It's hard to go against Penix Jr. and DeBoer, who simply don't lose big games (9-0 against AP Top 25 opponents at Washington).
Prediction: Washington 37, Texas 33
Monday, Jan. 8
CFP National Championship Presented by AT&T
Alabama vs. Washington
NRG Stadium (Houston)
7:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
The national title game pits the best big-game coach of his generation in Saban against possibly the nation's best big-game coach of the future in DeBoer. Two very different quarterbacks also match up in Washington's Penix Jr., who throws left-handed lasers from the pocket, and Alabama's Milroe, who thrives on deep passes and mobility. Washington has the edge at wide receiver, while Alabama's defense, led by Dallas Turner and Terrion Arnold, looks a bit sturdier on the big stage. Ultimately, Saban gets the edge here and wins arguably his most improbable national title, as Milroe leads a late touchdown drive to take down the Huskies in an epic title game.
Prediction: Alabama 29, Washington 27
New Year's Six
Friday, Dec. 29
Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic
No. 9 Missouri vs. No. 7 Ohio State
AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)
8 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Missouri certainly will be the more enthusiastic participant, as Eliah Drinkwitz takes the Tigers to a New Year's Six bowl for the first time in a decade. Drinkwitz's team pushed Georgia in Athens and has a significantly improved offense led by quarterback Brady Cook. Ohio State, despite aspiring for CFP appearances, has handled these consolation matchups quite well, winning Rose Bowls after the 2018 and 2021 seasons, and the Cotton Bowl after the 2017 campaign. The Buckeyes will be dealing with some opt-outs, but coach Ryan Day gets enough from a group seeking redemption after its third straight loss to Michigan. Quarterback Devin Brown, making his first start for the Buckeyes, spurs a strong fourth quarter (Kyle McCord entered the transfer portal on Dec. 4), and Ohio State slows Cody Schrader and the Tigers in the second half.
Prediction: Ohio State 33, Missouri 27
Saturday, Dec. 30
Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
No. 11 Ole Miss vs. No. 10 Penn State
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
Noon, ESPN and the ESPN App
The nation's No. 1 defense in Penn State takes on an Ole Miss offense that ranks in the top 20 nationally in both yards per game and points per game. Both teams have some solid wins but also lost to the two toughest opponents on their schedule -- Penn State to Michigan and Ohio State, Ole Miss to Georgia and Alabama. The Rebels' struggles in those two defeats, with only 27 points combined, have me leaning toward Penn State in this one. Linebacker Abdul Carter leads a stout defensive effort from Penn State, which smothers the run and forces Ole Miss into a few too many risky throws. A late interception seals the win for coach James Franklin's crew.
Prediction: Penn State 30, Ole Miss 24
Capital One Orange Bowl
No. 6 Georgia vs. No. 5 Florida State
Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
4 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Florida State coach Mike Norvell and his players react to not making the College Football Playoff.
The oranges may taste especially sour this year for the Seminoles and Bulldogs, who both had CFP aspirations after excellent seasons. How will the teams -- especially FSU, which was justifiably livid about being left out despite a 13-0 season and an ACC title -- respond? Opt-outs are likely for both teams, but Florida State is clearly limited on offense without starting quarterback Jordan Travis. Backup Tate Rodemaker will be cleared from his concussion, but FSU faces an uphill climb against a Georgia defense that also should be healthier than it was in the SEC title game. The Bulldogs' depth in the run game and at the line of scrimmage makes the difference, as Georgia forces two third quarter turnovers to pull away a bit.
Prediction: Georgia 28, Florida State 17
Monday, Jan. 1
Vrbo Fiesta Bowl
No. 23 Liberty vs. No. 8 Oregon
State Farm Stadium (Glendale, Arizona)
1 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Liberty went all the way to the New Year's Six in its first season under coach Jamey Chadwell, leading the nation in rushing (302.9 ypg) by a wide margin. Oregon comes in a bit glum after missing out on a likely CFP spot after falling in the Pac-12 championship game to rival Washington for the second time this season. The Ducks won't have their full cast of stars, and Liberty should have much more motivation going to the desert. But Liberty hasn't faced any opponent near Oregon's talent level, and the Ducks have enough depth, especially on defense, to stifle the Flames and pull away. Expect big games from Oregon's Tez Johnson, Jordan James and Jeffrey Bassa, who generates pressure on Liberty quarterback Kaidon Salter.
Prediction: Oregon 43, Liberty 28
Complete college football bowl schedule
Saturday, Dec. 16
Myrtle Beach Bowl
Georgia Southern vs. Ohio
Brooks Stadium (Conway, South Carolina)
Ohio coach Tim Albin has quietly done an excellent job in Athens since taking over for Frank Solich, going 19-7 since the start of the 2022 season. The Bobcats have a veteran quarterback in Kurtis Rourke and a defense that ranks fifth nationally in fewest points allowed (15.4 ppg). Georgia Southern dropped its final four games and five of its final seven after a promising start. Give me star linebacker Bryce Houston (119 tackles, 12.5 tackles for loss, 3 interceptions) and the Bobcats to win on the teal turf.
Prediction: Ohio 27, Georgia Southern 16
Result: Ohio 41, Georgia Southern 21
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Cricket Celebration Bowl
Howard vs. Florida A&M
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
Both defenses are outstanding, as Florida A&M allows only 14.3 points per game, second in the FCS. Howard is third in the FCS in pass efficiency defense, and pushed two FBS opponents (Northwestern and Eastern Michigan) in games this season. The Bison also represent a league (the MEAC) that is 6-1 in the Celebration Bowl. But I have to go with FAMU, which has looked dominant the past two months and gets another strong performance from SWAC Defensive Player of the Year Isaiah Major, Kendall Bohler and the "Dark Cloud" defense, which limits the Bison in the fourth quarter.
Prediction: Florida A&M 21, Howard 17
Result: Florida A&M 30, Howard 26
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R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
Jacksonville State vs. Louisiana
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
Coach Rich Rodriguez is back in a bowl game for the first time since 2017, and for the first time at Jacksonville State, which went 8-4 in its first season in Conference USA. Louisiana is a postseason regular and will make its 11th bowl appearance since 2011. The Ragin' Cajuns also have the crowd edge and generally play well in New Orleans, but they will miss star linebacker Kendre' Gant, who recently entered the portal. Give me Zion Webb and JSU to get it done.
Prediction: Jacksonville State 27, Louisiana 21
Result: Jacksonville State 34, Louisiana 31 (OT)
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Avocados From Mexico Cure Bowl
Appalachian State vs. Miami (Ohio)
FBC Mortgage Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
Miami (Ohio) admirably fought through the loss of quarterback Brett Gabbert to win the MAC championship and 11 games for the first time since Ben Roethlisberger led the team to 13 wins in 2003. Linebacker Matt Salopek leads a ferocious RedHawks defense that has 34 sacks, including 9.5 by Caiden Woullard, eight by Brian Ugwu and seven by Ty Wise. Picking against App State in a bowl game is dangerous -- the Mountaineers won their first six bowl games before stumbling in the 2021 Boca Raton Bowl -- but I like coach Chuck Martin's team to grind out a win.
Prediction: Miami (Ohio) 24, Appalachian State 18
Result: Appalachian State 13, Miami (Ohio) 9
Isleta New Mexico Bowl
New Mexico State vs. Fresno State
University Stadium (Albuquerque, New Mexico)
Coach Jerry Kill's team fell short of a Conference USA title, but gets rewarded with a nearby bowl trip to cap an incredible season. Aggies dynamic dual-threat quarterback Diego Pavia (2,915 pass yards, 851 rushing yards) returns to Albuquerque, where he apparently marked his territory, and aims for a second straight bowl win. Fresno State lost its final three regular-season games to fall out of the Mountain West race and will be without coach Jeff Tedford (medical issues). Kill, Pavia and the Aggies get it done.
Prediction: New Mexico State 31, Fresno State 21
Result: Fresno State 37, New Mexico State 10
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Starco Brands LA Bowl
UCLA vs. Boise State
SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California)
UCLA gets a virtual home game at SoFi, but Boise State should be the more galvanized team. The Broncos surged to a Mountain West title under then-interim coach Spencer Danielson (who now has the permanent job), and have one of the nation's best all-around offensive players in Ashton Jeanty, who comes in with 1,262 rushing yards, 552 receiving yards and 19 touchdowns (14 rushing, 5 receiving). UCLA's defense should keep the game interesting, but there are too many concerns on offense in Westwood, especially against a Boise State team with plenty of mojo. The Broncos capture their second straight bowl win.
Prediction: Boise State 30, UCLA 23
Result: UCLA 35, Boise State 22
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Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl
California vs. Texas Tech
Independence Stadium (Shreveport, Louisiana)
Cal has the longer trip but could be more excited to be there, as coach Justin Wilcox's team won its final three games to qualify for its first bowl since 2019 (Redbox). Texas Tech entered the fall with Big 12 title aspirations, but started out 3-5 before a nice late push. Both teams have excellent running backs in Tahj Brooks (Texas Tech) and Jaydn Ott (Cal), and Cal will have a new offensive playcaller (Mike Bloesch) after Jake Spavital's departure to Baylor. Ultimately, the Red Raiders' defense makes a few more plays late and gets out of Shreveport with their third consecutive bowl win.
Prediction: Texas Tech 24, Cal 20
Result: Texas Tech 34, California 14
Monday, Dec. 18
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Famous Toastery Bowl
Western Kentucky vs. Old Dominion
Jerry Richardson Stadium (Charlotte, North Carolina)
Prolific quarterback Austin Reed leads Western Kentucky into Charlotte, where he'll face an Old Dominion defense that helped the school reach its second bowl under coach Ricky Rahne. Reed's numbers this fall aren't as eye-popping as last season, but he has 10 touchdowns in his past three games. Old Dominion will lean on a defense anchored by FBS tackles leader Jason Henderson (170 stops), a third-team AP All-America selection in 2022. Ultimately, offense will prevail over defense in this one.
Prediction: Western Kentucky 35, Old Dominion 27
Result: Western Kentucky 38, Old Dominion 35 (OT)
Tuesday, Dec. 19
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Scooter's Coffee Frisco Bowl
UTSA vs. Marshall
Toyota Stadium (Frisco, Texas)
9 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
UTSA already notched a postseason win of sorts by retaining coach Jeff Traylor, who seeks his first bowl victory at the school. Roadrunners record-setting quarterback Frank Harris will face a Marshall defense that features several accomplished players, including star end Owen Porter. Although Marshall got into a bowl game, it also dropped six of its final eight games. Harris and star wideout Joshua Cephus connect for two touchdowns as UTSA prevails.
Prediction: UTSA 31, Marshall 20
Result: UTSA 35, Marshall 17
Thursday, Dec. 21
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RoofClaim.com Boca Raton Bowl
South Florida vs. Syracuse
FAU Stadium (Boca Raton, Florida)
8 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Syracuse certainly will enjoy leaving the frigid north for Boca Raton, although the Orange might not be as excited as USF, which improved from 1-11 in 2022 to 6-6 under first-year coach Alex Golesh. The Bulls' offense is inconsistent but, when hitting, can be dangerous behind quarterback Byrum Brown and others. It's always hard to forecast how teams like Syracuse will perform under interim coaches, but the Orange defense will rise up as they win their first bowl game since the 2018 Camping World bowl, also in the Sunshine State.
Prediction: Syracuse 31, South Florida 24
Friday, Dec. 22
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Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl
Georgia Tech vs. UCF
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
6:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Two of coach George O'Leary's former teams will meet in Tampa, as UCF plays in its first bowl game as a Big 12 member and Georgia Tech returns to the postseason for the first time since 2018. Both teams have stars on offense in UCF running back RJ Harvey and Georgia Tech quarterback Haynes King, the Texas A&M transfer with dynamic dual-threat abilities. UCF isn't the most reliable team but appears to be the better one in this matchup. Harvey and quarterback John Rhys Plumlee put together a big second half and avoid mistakes against a takeaway-driven Georgia Tech defense.
Prediction: UCF 37, Georgia Tech 28
Saturday, Dec. 23
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Birmingham Bowl
Troy vs. Duke
Protective Stadium (Birmingham, Alabama)
Noon, ABC and the ESPN App
I made the mistake of picking against Troy in last year's bowl and won't do it again. Coach Jon Sumrall has led the Trojans to consecutive Sun Belt titles in his first two seasons, and uses bruising defense and rushing offense to overwhelm opponents. Duke has lost its coach (Mike Elko to Texas A&M) and its quarterback (Riley Leonard to the portal). The Blue Devils have enough veteran leadership to make this close, but Kimani Vidal runs for two touchdowns to lift Troy.
Prediction: Troy 26, Duke 23
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Camellia Bowl
Arkansas State vs. Northern Illinois
Cramton Bowl (Montgomery, Alabama)
Noon, ESPN and the ESPN App
Butch Jones is back in the postseason, albeit for the first time as Arkansas State's coach. The Red Wolves doubled their wins total from 2022 this season. Northern Illinois leaned on its defense to win four of its final six games to get bowl eligible. The Huskies' postseason history is ... not good. They've lost seven consecutive bowl games and 10 of their past 12. Will the streak end against Arkansas State? Yes.
Prediction: Northern Illinois 25, Arkansas State 20
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Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
James Madison vs. Air Force
Amon G. Carter Stadium (Fort Worth, Texas)
3:30 p.m., ABC and the ESPN App
The excitement around James Madison's first-ever bowl game took a hit last week when coach Curt Cignetti departed for Indiana, but the Dukes should still be amped up to play Air Force. Something has to give as a JMU defense allowing an FBS-low 61.5 rushing yards per game faces Air Force, which ranks second nationally in rushing (275.8 ypg). Air Force coach Troy Calhoun has won four straight bowl games, but his team cratered down the stretch and JMU seems to have more motivation.
Prediction: James Madison 30, Air Force 14
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Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Georgia State vs. Utah State
Albertsons Stadium (Boise, Idaho)
3:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
The teams arrive on opposite trajectories. Utah State won three of its final four games to secure bowl eligibility, while Georgia State lost its final five, four by 17 points or more. The game's location favors Utah State, which could lean on future Navy SEAL Levi Williams at quarterback after his big performance in the regular-season finale. Williams, star wideout Jalen Royals and the Aggies pull away in the second half.
Prediction: Utah State 37, Georgia State 24
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68 Ventures Bowl
South Alabama vs. Eastern Michigan
Hancock Whitney Stadium (Mobile, Alabama)
7 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Chris Creighton has quietly done one of the more remarkable coaching jobs in the FBS, guiding Eastern Michigan to six bowl games since 2016 after the team had only one other postseason appearance (1987 California Bowl). His reward is a road game against South Alabama, which whipped Oklahoma State in Week 3 but dropped three of its final five games. The Jaguars lost star receiver Caullin Lacy to the transfer portal, but will still get enough from promising quarterback Carter Bradley in this one.
Prediction: South Alabama 27, Eastern Michigan 19
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SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl
Utah vs. Northwestern
Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas)
7:30 p.m., ABC and the ESPN App
Big Ten Coach of the Year David Braun leads Northwestern into its first bowl game since 2020, as the team improved by six wins after a summer that included allegations of hazing resulting in the departure of longtime coach Pat Fitzgerald. Utah coach Kyle Whittingham, meanwhile, has seen his mastery of the bowls slip since a loss to Northwestern in the 2018 Holiday Bowl, as the Utes have dropped four straight bowls after winning 11 of their first 12 under Whittingham. Northwestern has the quarterback edge with Ben Bryant, but Utah's defense is simply too physical in this one, limiting the Wildcats in the second half at a venue where the Utes play well.
Prediction: Utah 27, Northwestern 16
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EasyPost Hawai'i Bowl
Coastal Carolina vs. San Jose State
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex (Honolulu)
10:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Some predictions will delve into true analysis, but when a team's coach shows up to a bowl announcement holding a surfboard and wearing only board shorts and shades, I am obligated to pick his squad. Plus, San Jose State won its final six regular-season games behind a quarterback Chevan Cordeiro, who will be returning to his native Hawai'i for the game. Expect a big game from Cordeiro, who has thrown 13 touchdown passes during the win streak. Coastal Carolina quarterback Grayson McCall recently entered the transfer portal, and the longer trip for the Chants will take a toll.
Prediction: San Jose State 37, Coastal Carolina 33
Tuesday, Dec. 26
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Quick Lane Bowl
Bowling Green vs. Minnesota
Ford Field (Detroit)
2 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
The Gophers are the only five-win team in this year's bowl field, and they head to Detroit to face a Bowling Green squad that beat them in 2021 and is making consecutive appearances in the Quick Lane Bowl. Coach Scot Loeffler's team leads the FBS in takeaways with 27, and will lean on a defense featuring linebacker Darren Anders and cornerbacks Jordan Oladokun and Jalen Huskey, who each have four interceptions. Minnesota dropped its final four games and lost quarterback Athan Kaliakmanis to the portal. Bowling Green scores late for the win.
Prediction: Bowling Green 23, Minnesota 21
SERVPRO First Responder Bowl
Texas State vs. Rice
Gerald J. Ford Stadium (Dallas)
5:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Rice won six games for the first time under coach Mike Bloomgren and will make consecutive bowl appearances, albeit without quarterback JT Daniels, who is retiring because of multiple concussions. The Owls will need a defense that finished the regular season strong to slow down quarterback TJ Finley, running back Ismail Mahdi and a Texas State offense that ranks 10th nationally in yards per game (470.8). Rice ultimately gets a boost from quarterback AJ Padgett, who played well in relief of Daniels and will do so again in a close contest.
Prediction: Rice 33, Texas State 28
Guaranteed Rate Bowl
Kansas vs. UNLV
Chase Field (Phoenix)
9 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Remember when TCU and Cal battled to a 10-7 overtime win for the Horned Frogs in the game formerly known as the Cheez-It Bowl, which featured nine combined turnovers? Yeah, this won't be that. Two really dynamic offenses square off in the desert, as Kansas aims for its first bowl win since 2008, and UNLV eyes its first since 2000. The Rebels have been fantastic under first-year coach Barry Odom but come in on a losing streak. Kansas quarterback Jason Bean caps a resilient career by leading the Jayhawks to yet another milestone.
Prediction: Kansas 38, UNLV 27
Wednesday, Dec. 27
Military Bowl presented by GoBowling.com
Virginia Tech vs. Tulane
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium (Annapolis, Maryland)
2 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
This feels like a letdown for Tulane, which lost the AAC championship game, a chance for another New Year's Six berth and its coach, Willie Fritz, who departed for Houston. Plus, the Green Wave likely will enter a road-like environment against Virginia Tech, which makes its first bowl appearance under coach Brent Pry. The Hokies won four of their final six games to get bowl eligible and have the defense to grind out a low-scoring win. Star pass-rusher Antwaun Powell-Ryland (9.5 sacks, 3 forced fumbles) is coming back for 2024 and will add to his sacks total in the bowl game.
Prediction: Virginia Tech 23, Tulane 17
Duke's Mayo Bowl
North Carolina vs. West Virginia
Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, North Carolina)
5:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
North Carolina has the friendly location in this one, but the Tar Heels enter having lost four of their final six games. Opt-outs are certainly a factor for UNC, while West Virginia should be geared up after defying the Big 12 preseason poll to win eight games. WVU is the most balanced team, showing it can win with Beanie Bishop Jr. (four interceptions, 20 pass breakups) and a solid defense, or an offense galvanized by quarterback Garrett Greene and others. North Carolina's shaky finish has me leaning toward the 'Eers and a mayo bath for coach Neal Brown.
Prediction: WVU 37, UNC 30
DirecTV Holiday Bowl
No. 15 Louisville vs. USC
Petco Park (San Diego)
8 p.m., Fox
Louisville's offense looked downright dreadful against Florida State in the ACC championship game, failing to reach the end zone. The Cardinals probably smiled a bit at seeing USC, which cratered defensively this season, plummeting to 120th nationally in points allowed and 112th in yards per play allowed. Opt-outs certainly will be an area to monitor for coach Lincoln Riley's team, which will be playing much closer to home. Louisville is the more balanced team, and will get enough from its defense to win its first-ever appearance in the Holiday Bowl.
Prediction: Louisville 38, USC 30
TaxAct Texas Bowl
Texas A&M vs. No. 20 Oklahoma State
NRG Stadium (Houston)
9 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
It's a Big 12 reunion in Houston, as Oklahoma State and Texas A&M will match up in their second bowl game since the Aggies left for the SEC in 2012. Oklahoma State has won four of the teams' past five meetings, and coach Mike Gundy has won five of his past seven bowl appearances. Texas A&M has the talent edge and location edge in the matchup, but also finds itself in a transition phase after the coaching change to Elko. Opt-outs and portal entries are certainly factors with these teams, but there are a few more reliable elements with Gundy and the Pokes.
Prediction: Oklahoma State 37, Texas A&M 31
Thursday, Dec. 28
Wasabi Fenway Bowl
No. 24 SMU vs. Boston College
Fenway Park (Boston)
11 a.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Other than Florida State, no team had a bigger letdown on Selection Day than SMU, which went from winning the AAC and possibly securing a New Year's Six bowl berth, to facing Boston College in a virtual road game at a baseball stadium. Yikes. Still, I like coach Rhett Lashlee's team to find a way behind its defense, which ranks 12th nationally in both points allowed (17.4 ppg) and yards allowed (299.5 ypg). Boston College failed to eclipse 22 points in any of its past five games and will struggle against Elijah Roberts and the Mustangs.
Prediction: SMU 26, Boston College 13
Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl
Rutgers vs. Miami
Yankee Stadium (New York)
2:15 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Miami heads to the Bronx with extremely limited quarterback depth and without defensive lineman Leonard Taylor and others moving on with their careers. The Hurricanes' last trip to Yankee Stadium was ugly: They fell 35-3 to Wisconsin in the 2018 Pinstripe Bowl. This one won't be so lopsided, but Rutgers should have the motivational edge as well as proximity, as it returns to Yankee Stadium for the first time in a decade. The Scarlet Knights defense keeps the score in range, but Miami creates some distance in the fourth quarter.
Prediction: Miami 24, Rutgers 20
Pop-Tarts Bowl
No. 18 NC State vs. No. 25 Kansas State
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
5:45 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Many of us who know NC State coach Dave Doeren secretly hoped he would have to take the mayonnaise bath last year in Charlotte (Maryland coach Mike Locksley didn't disappoint). Doeren may have to settle for Pop-Tarts. NC State won its final five regular-season games, while Kansas State saw more uneven results and lost quarterback Will Howard to the portal. The Wolfpack haven't won 10 games since 2002, and getting there is a huge deal for Doeren and the team's veterans. Quarterback Brennan Armstrong ends his career on a strong note as NC State prevails.
Prediction: NC State 29, Kansas State 27
Valero Alamo Bowl
No. 14 Arizona vs. No. 12 Oklahoma
Alamodome (San Antonio)
9:15 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
No one should want to play Arizona right now. Coach Jedd Fisch's team has won six straight games, including four against opponents ranked at the time. Oklahoma had a redemptive second season under coach Brent Venables, but clearly has more disappointment at not reaching the CFP or the New Year's Six. Opt-outs on the Sooners side could shape this matchup, as Arizona returns a lot for 2024, including standout freshman quarterback Noah Fifita, who had 2,515 passing yards and 23 touchdowns after taking over in Week 5. Arizona has outpaced all expectations this season, and finishes on a good note with a mini-upset.
Prediction: Arizona 37, Oklahoma 34
Friday, Dec. 29
TaxSlayer Gator Bowl
No. 22 Clemson vs. Kentucky
EverBank Stadium (Jacksonville, Florida)
Noon, ESPN and the ESPN App
Neither team had the season it hoped for but both finished on good notes, as Clemson won its final four games and Kentucky beat rival Louisville in the Governor's Cup. Kentucky quarterback Devin Leary faced Clemson in the ACC while at NC State and gets another shot at the Tigers, who will be without star linebacker Jeremiah Trotter Jr. and several others moving on. Still, Clemson will be motivated to continue its streak of top-20 finishes, and gets enough from running back Phil Mafah to complement a solid defensive effort.
Prediction: Clemson 27, Kentucky 19
Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl
No. 19 Oregon State vs. No. 16 Notre Dame
Sun Bowl Stadium (El Paso, Texas)
2 p.m., CBS
Notre Dame coach Marcus Freeman finds himself in a similar position as last year, when a bowl win carried some urgency after the team's choppy play. Although the Irish have lost several notable players to the portal, they seem more stable than Oregon State, where quarterback DJ Uiagalelei entered the portal and star running back Damien Martinez got suspended following a DUI arrest. Both teams play good defense and can move the ball in different ways, but there are more guarantees with Notre Dame, especially if standout running back Audric Estime sees the field in El Paso.
Prediction: Notre Dame 33, Oregon State 24
AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Memphis vs. Iowa State
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium (Memphis, Tennessee)
3:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Memphis gets an extra home game, although two of its three losses came at Liberty Stadium. Quarterback Seth Henigan (3,519 passing yards, 28 touchdowns) faces an Iowa State defense that holds up well against the pass and has allowed more than 28 points just twice all season. The Cyclones really improved down the stretch, winning five of their final seven games and getting a nice lift from quarterback Rocco Becht and running back Abu Sama III. ISU gets its second Liberty Bowl win under coach Matt Campbell.
Prediction: Iowa State 34, Memphis 27
Saturday, Dec. 30
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TransPerfect Music City Bowl
Auburn vs. Maryland
Nissan Stadium (Nashville, Tennessee)
2 p.m., ABC and the ESPN App
Auburn must rebound from an incredibly brutal ending to the regular season, a blowout home loss to New Mexico State and a heartbreaking defeat to Alabama after an inexplicable fourth-down implosion. Maryland ended the season playing relatively well, and has won back-to-back bowl games under coach Mike Locksley. Big Ten career passing leader Taulia Tagovailoa looks to cap his run as a Terrapin against an Auburn defense that ranks 29th nationally against the pass. Maryland's diversity on offense is the difference in what shapes up to be a very close game.
Prediction: Maryland 27, Auburn 24
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Barstool Sports Arizona Bowl
Toledo vs. Wyoming
Arizona Stadium (Tucson, Arizona)
4:30 p.m., CW
After falling short in the MAC title game, Toledo can match the team record for wins against Wyoming, a repeat participant in the Arizona Bowl. The key matchup pits Toledo's standout offensive backfield of Dequan Finn and Peny Boone against a Wyoming defense, led by linebacker Easton Gibbs, which flustered Texas Tech, Fresno State and others and allowed only 15 points combined in its final two games. Wyoming lost last year's Arizona in overtime. This time, the Cowboys flip the script and prevail by the same score.
Prediction: Wyoming 30, Toledo 27 (OT)
Monday, Jan. 1
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ReliaQuest Bowl
Wisconsin vs. No. 13 LSU
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
Noon, ESPN2 and the ESPN App
Wisconsin's rocky first season under coach Luke Fickell ended on a positive note with wins over Nebraska and Minnesota. A Badgers defense that ranks 18th nationally in points allowed faces the nation's top offense in LSU, which eclipsed 40 points in eight contests. Opt-outs are definitely a storyline for LSU, as quarterback Jayden Daniels and others face decisions about playing in the bowl. Wisconsin knows it will be without All-Big Ten running back Braelon Allen, who is off to the NFL. Even if LSU is shortanded, it should have enough to outlast Wisconsin in Tampa.
Prediction: LSU 35, Wisconsin 24
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Cheez-It Citrus Bowl
No. 17 Iowa vs. No. 21 Tennessee
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
1 p.m., ABC and the ESPN App
Brian Ferentz's final game as Iowa offensive coordinator will come against an opponent that will require some scoring from the Hawkeyes. Tennessee isn't nearly as potent as the 2022 team, but still averages 31.5 points per game. Both teams lack signature wins on their profiles, and Tennessee's performance against opponents with defenses like Iowa's isn't overly encouraging. But the Vols generally take care of the ball and will move it enough with quarterback Joe Milton III, running back Jaylen Wright and others. Iowa puts up a spirited effort, but the warts on offense are just too big to overcome.
Prediction: Tennessee 23, Iowa 16