Since the end of the 2023 NBA draft, there have been questions about the uncertainty with this year's class and which prospect would ultimately emerge as the No. 1 overall pick. With conference play approaching in college basketball, international basketball in full swing and the G League Ignite seven games in, several prospects are still in the mix. USC freshman guard Isaiah Collier has emerged for now despite a turnover average not becoming of a top pick.
The competition right behind Collier is deep: Alex Sarr remains on the radar following his impressive preseason games against Ignite, Zaccharie Risacher is gaining momentum in France, and freshman Ja'Kobe Walter has a high-platform stage at Baylor to show scouts he's worthy of going No. 1.
ESPN NBA draft experts Jonathan Givony and Jeremy Woo further examine the competition at the top along with the slow starts of the Ignite's Ron Holland and Izan Almansa.
2024 NBA mock draft
The 2024 draft order is based on ESPN projections and reflects the current state of picks owed and owned:
FIRST ROUND
Isaiah Collier | USC | PG | Age: 18.9
Alex Sarr | Perth Wildcats | PF/C | Age: 18.4
Zaccharie Risacher | JL Bourg | SF | Age: 18.4
Ja'Kobe Walter | Baylor | SG | Age: 18.7
Ron Holland | G League Ignite | SF | Age: 18.2
Donovan Clingan | UConn | C | Age: 19.5
Matas Buzelis | G League Ignite | SF | Age: 18.9
8. Utah Jazz
Nikola Topic | Mega MIS | PG | Age: 18.1
9. Oklahoma City Thunder (via Houston)
Stephon Castle | UConn | PG/SG | Age: 18.9
10. San Antonio Spurs (via Toronto)
Justin Edwards | Kentucky | SG/SF | Age: 19.7
11. New Orleans Pelicans (via LA Lakers)*
Kyle Filipowski | Duke | PF/C | Age: 19.8
12. Indiana Pacers
Cody Williams | Colorado | SF | Age: 18.8
13. Oklahoma City Thunder (via LA Clippers)
Izan Almansa | G League Ignite | PF/C | Age: 18.2
14. Orlando Magic
Tyrese Proctor | Duke | PG | Age: 19.4
15. Atlanta Hawks (via Sacramento)
D.J. Wagner | Kentucky | PG/SG | Age: 18.4
16. New York Knicks (via Dallas)
Tidjane Salaun | Cholet | PF | Age: 18.1
17. Milwaukee Bucks (via New Orleans)
Bobi Klintman | Cairns Taipans | SF/PF | Age: 20.5
18. New York Knicks
Ryan Dunn | Virginia | SF | Age: 20.7
19. Portland Trail Blazers (via Golden State)
Osasere Ighodaro | Marquette | PF/C | Age: 21.3
Robert Dillingham | Kentucky | PG | Age: 18.7
21. Atlanta Hawks
Jared McCain | Duke | PG | Age: 19.6
22. Houston Rockets (via Brooklyn)
Kel'el Ware | Indiana | C | Age: 19.4
23. Miami Heat
Kevin McCullar Jr. | Kansas | SF | Age: 22.7
24. Phoenix Suns
Tyler Smith | G League Ignite | SF/PF | Age: 18.8
25. Indiana Pacers (via Oklahoma City)
Reed Sheppard | Kentucky | PG/SG |19.4
26. Denver Nuggets
Trevon Brazile | Arkansas | PF | Age: 20.7
Juan Nunez | Ratiopharm Ulm | PG | Age: 19.3
28. Milwaukee Bucks
Aday Mara | UCLA | C | Age: 18.4
29. Boston Celtics
Baba Miller | Florida St. | PF | Age: 19.6
Yves Missi | Baylor | C | Age: 19.5
* The Pelicans can defer the Lakers' first-round pick to 2025
SECOND ROUND
Kylan Boswell | Arizona | PG | Age: 18.4
32. New York Knicks (via Detroit)
Trey Alexander | Creighton | PG/SG | Age: 20.4
33. Milwaukee Bucks (via Portland)
Tyler Kolek | Marquette | PG | Age: 22.6
34. Detroit Pistons (via Washington)
Dillon Mitchell | Texas | SF/PF | Age: 19.9
35. Portland Trail Blazers (via Charlotte)
Adem Bona | UCLA | C | Age: 20.6
36. Boston Celtics (via Chicago)
Tristan Da Silva | Colorado | SF/PF | Age: 22.3
37. Minnesota Timberwolves (via Memphis)
Melvin Ajinca | Saint Quentin | SG/SF | Age: 19.2
38. New York Knicks (via Utah)
Reece Beekman | Virginia | PG | Age: 21.7
39. Oklahoma City Thunder (via Houston)
Aaron Bradshaw | Kentucky | C | Age: 19.5
40. LA Clippers (via Toronto)
Dalton Knecht | Tennessee | SF | 22.6
41. San Antonio Spurs (via LA Lakers)
Alex Karaban | UConn | PF | Age: 21.0
42. Indiana Pacers
Kobe Johnson | USC | SG | Age: 20.8
43. Los Angeles Lakers (via LA Clippers)
Berke Buyuktuncel | UCLA | PF | Age: 19.0
44. Orlando Magic
Terrence Shannon Jr. | Illinois | SG/SF | 23.3
45. Sacramento Kings
Mark Mitchell | Duke | SF/PF | Age: 20.8
46. Boston Celtics (via Dallas)
Zach Edey | Purdue | C | Age: 21.3
Payton Sandfort | Iowa | SF | Age: 21.3
48. Philadelphia 76ers (via New York)
Alex Toohey | Sydney | SF/PF | 19.5
49. Houston Rockets (via Golden State)
Keshad Johnson | Arizona | PF | Age: 22.4
50. LA Clippers (via Cleveland)
Riley Kugel | Florida | SG | Age: 19.8
51. Portland Trail Blazers (via Atlanta)
Ajay Mitchell | UC Santa Barbara | PG | Age: 21.2
52. Houston Rockets (via Brooklyn)
Pacome Dadiet | Ratiopharm Ulm | SG/SF | Age: 18.1
53. Atlanta Hawks (via Miami)
Ariel Hukporti | Melbourne | C | Age: 21.4
54. Washington Wizards (via Phoenix)
Trentyn Flowers | Adelaide | SG/SF | 18.7
55. Houston Rockets (via Oklahoma City)
Baylor Scheierman | Creighton | SG/SF | Age: 23.0
56. Denver Nuggets (via Milwaukee)
AJ Johnson | Illawarra Hawks | SG | Age: 18.8
57. Indiana Pacers (via Milwaukee)
Zacharie Perrin | Antibes | PF/C | Age: 19.0
58. Charlotte Hornets (via Boston)
Judah Mintz | Syracuse | PG/SG | Age: 20.2
Note: The Philadelphia 76ers and Phoenix Suns forfeited a 2024 second-round draft pick.
Isaiah Collier takes over at No. 1
Clear the runway as Isaiah Collier steals the rock and soars through the paint for a massive jam for the Trojans.
As we move into December, the race for the top spot in the 2024 NBA draft remains as wide-open as any in recent memory. There's a drastic variance of opinion among executives and scouts surrounding the shortlist of candidates, the caliber of which doesn't appear to stack up very well historically. In the 2023 draft, Victor Wembanyama unquestionably sat at the top. In 2022, there was a lack of consensus among teams surrounding Paolo Banchero, Chet Holmgren and Jabari Smith Jr., but those three players formed a clear top tier and were ultimately drafted in that order.
It appears the competition for No. 1 could potentially play out up until draft night in June with an ill-defined top group of prospects garnering mixed reviews around the NBA as players enter the thick of their seasons. The aspect of team need and fit could come into play more strongly than usual, depending on which team wins the draft lottery in May. While no prospect is running away with the mantle yet, somebody has to get drafted first. From our point of view, USC's Isaiah Collier has taken hold -- albeit softly -- of the top spot.
Collier is no stranger to the top prospect conversation, having earned the No. 1 Men's Recruiting Services Consensus Index (RSCI) ranking in the 2023 high school class and entering the season at No. 2 in our mock. Through his first six games with USC, Collier has been a bit of a mixed bag -- some pronounced highs and lows -- but his overall production has been up to snuff.
The good: He's averaging an efficient 18.2 points per game, shooting 56% on 2s, 41% from 3 and 76% from the line.
The bad: He's turning the ball over 5.3 times per game -- to just four assists -- an alarming turnover clip for any prospect, much less a player who figures into the discussion at No. 1. While it's a tiny sample size, it's safe to say there's much for Collier to improve on to shore up his place atop draft boards.
There's quite a lot to like about Collier, who USC lists at 6-foot-5 and 210 pounds -- which, if accurate, gives him outstanding size for a lead guard (for comparison, he measured at 6-3¼ in shoes earlier this year at the Hoop Summit). He possesses an excellent combination of strength and speed at his size, making him a terror in the open floor and a threat to get downhill and finish going in all directions. He's at his best playing in space, where his excellent handle allows him to change direction effectively and beat defenders to spots. Collier has always seen the floor quite well and is already a positive pick-and-roll player, where he figures to do quite a bit of his damage as a pro. He can utilize the extra half-step to help get into the paint, and is comfortable throwing all types of passes to open teammates using both hands. There's room for him to become even more technical in these situations, but his current level of comfort and skill as a playmaker bodes well for his NBA transition, giving him the framework to become a potential franchise-level point guard if things break right.
While passing and shot-creation has always been a big selling point, as evidenced by his turnover rate, Collier's half-court game is still very much developing. He struggles a bit more against set defenses, due in part to his streaky jumper, which despite positive shooting splits remains a key area of improvement teams have questions about. He shoots a flatter ball at times, leading to the occasional wild miss, and most opposing teams would still rather keep him out of the paint and challenge him to hit jumpers. Collier will have to consistently punish teams that try to turn him into a scorer and limit his playmaking. His strength and speed will always give him some degree of advantage, particularly on a larger NBA floor. For now, college teams will presumably continue to show him bodies and keep him out of the paint. The more he can punish them for doing so, the more confident teams will feel about his long-term role as a lead creator.
Another fair critique at this point has been Collier's approach to the game, with some scouts expressing concerns over his body language and occasionally casual moments this early in the season. When focused, he can be an excellent defender, and a joy to watch when scoring and making plays for teammates. It's perhaps a little early in the season for him to look disengaged, and his unusually poor turnover rate would seem to have more to do with approach than any lack of talent or ability as a passer. While USC wants to play uptempo and gives its guards a lot of freedom, teams will hope to see Collier rein in the mistakes a bit, and aggressive turnovers are always easier to forgive than careless ones.
Collier is not the first elite prospect to sometimes have some boredom creep into his game, but his stock also isn't quite solid enough at this point to where his lapses in focus, occasionally sloppy play, and flashes of immaturity will be taken for granted or excused by evaluators. It's not the end of the world to look like an unfinished product at 19 years old -- his talent ultimately speaks for itself -- but teams are always looking for leadership qualities in young point guards, particularly those that require a high-leverage draft pick. None of this seems likely to seriously hamstring his stock, but depending on the values of whichever team is drafting first, it could certainly play a role in whether he goes No. 1 or not.
Ultimately, Collier has a level of star power to his game that other top prospects can't quite replicate, with a compelling mix of creativity, speed and competitiveness that point to big upside as he matures. His distinct strengths have earned him the top spot on our mock draft and big board for the time being, but it's far from a done deal. Here's a look at how some other top candidates have fared. -- Jeremy Woo
Other candidates for the No. 1 pick
Alex Sarr
Sarr's Perth squad bounced back from a disappointing 2-5 start to win five straight games heading into the FIBA break. The 7-1 French big has carved out a consistent 19-minutes-per-game role while doing his best work on the defensive end -- he ranks second in the NBL in block percentage. He covers ground as well as any player in this class, rotating seamlessly from beyond the 3-point line for weakside rejections with his 7-5 wingspan and impressive timing. He almost always keeps blocks inbounds to give his team a chance to gain possession and also uses his superb mobility to switch onto guards on the perimeter, recover to the rim and contest jumpers all over the floor.
Offensively, Sarr has been more of a mixed bag, especially relative to the incredibly high bar he set for himself early on in two preseason games versus G League Ignite near Las Vegas where he exploded for 43 points over the contests. He's struggling to make shots consistently, shooting 30% for 3 and 56% from the free throw line, shying away from physicality in the paint and looking sped-up with his decision-making -- not a shock for an 18-year-old playing against high-level competition.
In theory, every NBA team is looking for a switchable, shot-blocking, floor-spacing, vertical spacer like Sarr who can play in single or double-big man lineups -- especially one with physical upside and youth. In reality, Sarr still has work to do convincing teams he has the toughness and feel for the game to end up as a No. 1 pick candidate. He has plenty of time to do this with three months left in his season.
That decision will likely have as much to do with the team picking, their thoughts on the other prospects around Sarr, and his own continued development this season. -- Jonathan Givony
Zaccharie Risacher
No player has more momentum right now than Risacher, who is in the midst of the most productive season ever dating back to 2003 for an 18-year-old in EuroCup competition. He's currently the second-best scorer at his age in French league history, after Victor Wembanyama.
Risacher is averaging 11.5 points, 3.5 rebounds, 1 steal, 1 assist and .5 blocks in 22 minutes through 21 games while shooting a scorching 60% from 2 and 46% from 3 in an ideal situation playing for JL Bourg, who are 15-7 on the year.
He's earning his minutes first and foremost on the defensive end, where he's often asked to slow down point guards at 6-10. His quick feet getting over screens and containing guards one-on-one are a strength, and he has terrific instincts rotating all over the floor within his team's schemes to generate turnovers and protect the rim.
Risacher plays a very specific role for Bourg, mostly being utilized as a floor-spacing, transition threat who comes off screens, curls and cuts. He's been surprisingly aggressive and productive, hunting 3-pointers with increased confidence, shooting off movement, hitting pullup, sidestep and stepback jumpers, and showing smooth footwork and a quick release running off screens.
While not an exceptionally explosive or dynamic ballhandler and shot-creator, he's looking very confident attacking unbalanced defenses in a straight line. He finds ways to get to the free throw line prolifically and hunts out contact while authoring some impressive poster dunks. He's gained 10 pounds over the offseason, now tipping the scales at 202 pounds with a frame that can carry plenty of weight long-term.
For a player who has been criticized for passivity and question marks about his toughness, it's an encouraging sign for NBA teams seeing Risacher attack the lane, shoot the ball with any glimmer of daylight and generally produce consistently against high-level competition.
It's hard to project Risacher as the type of go-to scorer or dynamic athlete NBA teams typically covet with the No. 1 pick but he does everything else extremely well and plays a position of significant need. He's also younger than all but three college players in our Top 100, and the son of a longtime French national team player Stéphane Risacher -- giving him plenty of upside to grow into. If he continues to exceed expectations, he has every right to be in the conversation as one of the best prospects in this draft. -- Givony
Ja'Kobe Walter
Ja'Kobe Walter gathers the rock and splashes the triple from the wing for the Bears.
Walter's candidacy as a top prospect has been bolstered by standout games against Auburn and Oregon State where he combined for 52 points on 26 shots while playing excellent defense. In those contests, he showed dynamic shot-making running off screens, deep range on his pull-up jumper, and zero hesitation stepping into spot-up 3s with compact, consistent mechanics. He's made 44% of his attempts from beyond the arc this season.
Few freshmen bring the combination of intensity, quickness and versatility Walter does getting over screens, taking charges, pressuring the point of attack and generating turnovers with his 6-10 wingspan.
Just seven games into the season -- only two of which came against top-150 competition per KenPom -- we still have quite a bit to learn about several facets of Walter's game, namely his ballhandling, passing and all-around feel for the game.
He hasn't looked very natural creating offense out of pick-and-roll or one-on-one situations this season, as the basketball slows him down and he's prone to putting his head down and bullying his way into traffic, posting just five assists (and nine turnovers) in 192 minutes. He's had some questionable moments losing his man off the ball and running into screens defensively as well, which isn't rare for a freshman. Walter has an ideal platform to showcase himself on a high-octane Final Four contending Baylor squad flush with shooting and experience. Big games against Michigan State and Duke in the coming weeks, followed by a loaded Big 12 slate, will give Walter the chance to show he's worthy of being selected high in the draft. -- Givony
Is it too early to call G League Ignite prospects Ron Holland and Izan Almansa disappointments?
Perhaps, but it's certainly not too early to raise alarms about Ignite's horrific start to the year -- 0-7 and ranked dead last in offensive efficiency, defensive efficiency and net rating. The G League is a much different place now than it was when the Ignite program was announced in 2020. A third two-way contract, increased salaries for Exhibit 10, standard G League contracts, and an improved willingness by NBA teams to send their draft picks on assignment (nearly half of the 2023 draft's first round has already logged time in the G League) all have made the league extremely deep, talented and competitive.The league is brimming with former all-conference college players now in their 20s, presenting a difficult challenge for 18-year-olds such as Holland and Almansa, who are both younger than any collegiate prospect in the ESPN Top 100.
Signing eight prospects who all need minutes, freedom and patience for defensive lapses has proven to be disastrous for Ignite's hopes of playing competitive basketball. Their veterans -- once considered a strength of the program -- are now a clear weakness. Their players look old, slow and limited defensively and as shot-creators. This has put undue pressure on their teenagers, who have collectively struggled to get back in transition, communicate switches, rotate to help at the rim and give up far too many wide-open shots.
Holland, in particular, is struggling -- shooting 49% for 2, 24% for 3 and 44% from the free throw line while averaging 4.7 turnovers and two assists per game. He's struggling to create good shots for himself and others due to his thin frame and lack of explosiveness. He's also settling for far too many pull-up jumpers, has shown highly questionable decision-making, and isn't bringing anywhere near the same level of intensity defensively we saw at lower levels of competition.
The conversation with NBA scouts about Holland is getting ugly -- the idea of him being the No. 1 pick appears highly unlikely at the moment with some questioning whether being drafted in the top-10 is still a safe bet with how poorly he's played.
Luckily for Holland, there's nowhere to go but up. He's coming off his best game of the season on Sunday (24 points on 16 shots in 26 minutes, with five turnovers), so the hope is that as the team gets healthier (Matas Buzelis is expected back on Dec. 5 from a long absence due to an ankle injury), he'll get more comfortable and find some rhythm. Scouts have been somewhat turned off by the non-stop conversations he's having with referees and his extreme struggles at the free throw line, where he looks visibly frustrated. We have seen some flashes of his high-level intensity in generating turnovers and pushing the ball in the open floor that he was known for in high school, but the non-competitive nature of most of Ignite's games has worked against him.
Almansa is not having a great season either but has shown more signs of the defensive versatility, feel for the game, passing and pick-and-roll acumen that he was known for. He's coming off his best two games of the season (33 points on 17 shots, 19 rebounds, 5 assists, 3 steals, 2 blocks in 60 minutes versus the South Bay Lakers) in front of a host of NBA executives in Los Angeles, and has made intelligent plays all season showing his timing and instincts on both ends of the floor.
With that said, Almansa has often been put in difficult positions defensively due to his team's extreme dysfunction on that end of the floor, particularly in pick-and-roll. He clearly has a very small margin for error there due to his just-average quickness, length and explosiveness. He has, at times, got caught up in the lackadaisical nature of G League basketball as well. He's only 1-of-6 beyond the arc this season in seven games -- an area scouts were hoping to see improvement -- and has struggled at the free throw line (44%). Almansa would be better suited being surrounded by teammates who know how to play basketball rather than a group of teenagers still learning the nuances of the game -- but his production in other competitions and the success of other unorthodox European big men such as Domantas Sabonis and Alperen Sengun should help him on draft night. He looks like a safe bet in the 10-20 range and could still improve his standing to emerge as a top-10 prospect.
One Ignite player who has helped his standing thanks to the Ignite platform is 19-year-old former Overtime Elite forward Tyler Smith.
The 6-10 Smith has taken advantage of the vast swaths of space available in the up-tempo G League as a small-ball center, picking and popping, stepping into open 3-pointers and converting an excellent 50% of his attempts (13-of-26) through seven games. As a 30% 3-point shooter through 48 games in two seasons at OTE, it will be interesting to see if Smith can continue to scorch the nets as the season moves on. Every NBA team is looking for oversized wings in his mold who can stretch the floor.
Smith has shown his scoring instincts in other areas too, crashing the offensive glass with purpose, running the floor in transition, posting up switches and cutting or slipping into open spaces while highlighting his length and explosiveness.
On defense, Smith has major questions to answer. He's been more or less a complete sieve on that end of the floor at times this season, leaking points the moment he steps on the court and being targeted relentlessly by opposing coaching staffs. He gives up blow-bys on the perimeter, is slow to react to things happening off the ball, lacks physicality on the interior, and is very mistake-prone, especially guarding pick-and-roll. It's hard to see how he would be playable in his current state at almost any situation other than Ignite, but his size, 7-1 wingspan, and the fact that he turned 19 a month ago gives him room to make strides here if his feel for the game and intensity can improve.
Smith's productivity -- averaging a very efficient 17 points in 26 minutes per game -- is nothing to scoff at, and he's going to be studied closely for the remainder of the season by NBA teams trying to decipher if he can develop into a poor man's Michael Porter Jr.-type player. -- Givony