The 2024 NFL draft quarterback class could have the hopes, dreams and future plans of no less than 10 teams resting on it after this 2023 season. But how many starting-level quarterbacks will actually be available in April, and how good is this class overall?
We spoke to more than a dozen NFL scouts and execs over the past month to size this group up. It starts at the top: Is USC's Caleb Williams a lock to go No. 1 overall? And how far behind are North Carolina's Drake Maye, LSU's Jayden Daniels, Michigan's J.J. McCarthy and the rest of the bunch? Some teams will be more focused on the next tier. How many signal-callers overall will get picked in the draft, and which midround sleeper is a favorite among evaluators?
With the help of those pro scouts and GMs, we put this QB class in perspective and took stock of the best passers. Is this signal-caller class as good as we thought a few months ago?
Jump to:
Rating this class | Picking first-rounders
Williams' chances at No. 1 | Best traits
Biggest riser | Late-round options
How would you rate this QB class compared to those in recent years?
Before the 2023 college football season kicked off, the 2024 quarterback class was widely billed as special, thanks not only to rare top-tier talents but also what was perceived to be very good depth. That opinion has shifted some after four months of play.
"This is a good quarterback class, but it's not as great as some people say," said an AFC East scout with over 15 years of experience.
An AFC general manager went further, saying, "It's good at the top, but it's a bad year to need a guy after the first round. We could see four or five in the first round, one or two in the second and then none until Day 3."
The lack of depth certainly sticks out. We watched 14 quarterbacks get drafted in 2023 -- up from nine the year before -- and a record 12 of them were taken before the end of Round 5. You won't see that in 2024, thanks to injuries, unrealized expectations and a changing reality in college football as players maximize eligibility under name image likeness (NIL) and transfer rules.
I personally have four quarterbacks ranked in the top 20 overall: Williams, Maye, Daniels and McCarthy. Then I have second-round grades on Oregon's Bo Nix and Washington's Michael Penix Jr. before a drop-off to Tulane's Michael Pratt (fourth-round grade). Eleven signal-callers make my top 300 right now, which is lighter than the 15 I had in my final top 300 rankings in each of the previous two drafts. And one NFL general manager actually told me that his team's list is even shorter than mine.
"We have seven guys [ranked] right now, assuming none of the underclassmen surprise us. And that's why there will be a rush up the board to get the good ones."
Another NFL exec who has been in the industry for over 20 years tried to put it in historical perspective: "This is a better class than the last few years, but the 2020 class was better. And I would have said that based on pre-draft grades of those guys and not the results we've seen. [Joe] Burrow compares well to Williams. [Justin] Herbert to Maye. You could say McCarthy is this year's Tua [Tagovailoa]. Jayden Daniels is the Jalen Hurts. But 2020 had Jordan Love, too. I don't see that fifth guy this year."
So what happened to the depth we thought this class had?
Many scouts point to NIL, the COVID-19 extra year of eligibility and new transfer rules -- players can now stay in college and make money while continuing to develop.
"I've already seen three or four guys I had Day 3 developmental grades on say they're staying in school or transferring," said an NFC West scout who has closely evaluated this class.
Amid the COVID-19 pandemic, the 2020 season essentially did not count toward a player's four years of collegiate eligibility, which permits draft prospects like Washington State's Cameron Ward to enter the transfer portal as a four-year starter with one year of eligibility left. Instead of being an intriguing midround draft option, Ward is now expected to play another season of college ball.
Plus there is the opportunity for players to capitalize on their marketing potential with NIL money flowing. Nebraska coach Matt Rhule recently opined that a starting Power 5 quarterback in the transfer portal could cost $1 million to $2 million. Consider that San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy, the leading NFL MVP candidate, makes an average annual salary of $934,252 as a 2022 seventh-rounder on his rookie deal. For those QBs not guaranteed to be a first-round draft pick, the college money pull is strong.
Despite some early-round buzz, Georgia's Carson Beck announced Monday he would be returning to school for 2024. And in conversations with more than a dozen evaluators, two more quarterbacks were often mentioned as guys expected to join him -- though nothing is official. Texas' Quinn Ewers was also getting some first-round buzz but could use more experience. And then there is Colorado's Shedeur Sanders. The son of NFL Hall of Famer and current Buffaloes coach Deion Sanders was a red-hot name throughout September and October as he took the college football world by storm. He was seen as a potential top-10 pick early on -- he was even my No. 2-ranked quarterback for a time -- before Colorado's lack of depth caught up to the team and Sanders suffered a season-ending back injury.
Shedeur Sanders throws for 400 yards and five touchdowns, but it wasn't enough as Colorado falls to Stanford in double overtime.
"I had no idea he could spin it like that," said an AFC scouting director of Sanders. "You saw him against small-school dudes before Colorado, but he came in dealing, and his poise in the pocket really impressed me. He would be in the QB3 conversation this year if he came out."
Teams haven't totally started digging into the tape of the 2025 class, but after some conversations around the league, the way-too-early 2025 ranking of these three is Sanders, Beck and Ewers.
How many quarterbacks will go in Round 1?
It's a hard question to get a solid answer on in the middle of December, one month before the NFL's deadline for underclassmen to declare for the upcoming draft (Jan. 15). But the general consensus is that four or perhaps five quarterbacks will get picked in the first round.
"Williams, Maye, McCarthy, Daniels ... and Bo Nix does some nice things, too. I think you look at those five solidly," said a general manager for a team potentially in the quarterback market.
An AFC East evaluator who I spoke to cut that list down further, putting the number at three, maybe four. "I don't personally have a first-round grade on Daniels, but he's in the early second for me, and teams will probably over-draft him."
Since the NFL implemented the rookie wage scale in 2011, teams have placed an even higher value on drafting quarterbacks in the first round because the first four years -- with an option for a fifth year -- are cost-controlled and very affordable. A quarterback who previously might have been a second-rounder is now typically drafted on Day 1 to ensure that extra season of low-cost play from the most important position on the team.
An AFC scout who has watched all of this class's top quarterbacks spoke to that trend: "It used to be there'd be two or three guys. Now there are like four to five guys, a drop-off, and then some dudes who project as QB3 types. So comparing this [class] to even 2015 or 2016 isn't fair, because back then teams weren't elevating second- or third-round quarterbacks into the first round. Now we do."
Nix, a fifth-year senior, is the most polarizing of the group. He has started 60 games in his college career, throwing 108 touchdown passes to 26 interceptions. He has excellent touch and timing on underneath throws, and he works the flats like a pro. But Nix lacks elite arm strength and struggled at Auburn before transferring and finding success at Oregon.
"I think you could safely say four quarterbacks, with Nix in that Will Levis territory as an early Round 2 guy," said an AFC South scout who has studied the quarterbacks in this class for two years.
What about Penix? Scouts are split on the Washington transfer (from Indiana) following a great 2023 season. He's elusive in the pocket and throws a beautiful deep ball, layering passes into the hands of his talented receivers no matter the route.
But Penix also has injury concerns that must be vetted at the combine -- he has two ACL tears and two shoulder injuries in his profile that leave question marks the other top quarterbacks don't have. How his medicals come back could mean the difference between a top-40 draft position and something closer to a Round 3 grade.
"I see him as a Round 3 guy ... but that doesn't mean he'll be drafted in the third round. I could see a team that misses out on the top guys grabbing him early Round 2," said a former NFL scouting director who now consults with teams.
My most recent mock draft didn't feature Nix or Penix in Round 1, but it did have four quarterbacks drafted in the top seven selections -- which would be the fastest that four have come off the board in the common draft era. And the prevailing wisdom among scouts is Williams, Maye, Daniels, McCarthy, Nix and Penix all have a shot to be an NFL starter in 2024.
Is Williams a lock at No. 1?
The USC junior hasn't officially declared for the draft yet, though he has opted out of the DirecTV Holiday Bowl. But the assumption around the league is Williams will declare before the January deadline.
Williams has been projected as the top overall quarterback in the class basically since he came out of high school and committed to coach Lincoln Riley at Oklahoma. He transferred to USC in 2022 when Riley took the coaching job there and didn't disappoint, winning the Heisman Trophy that season. Over two years at USC, Williams has 72 passing touchdowns, 21 rushing touchdowns and 10 interceptions.
"He's close to a lock [to go No. 1]," said one NFL general manager. "I wouldn't say he's a lock to the level Trevor Lawrence or Joe Burrow were, but he's more of a lock than Bryce Young or Baker Mayfield."
Williams has been called a "generational talent" by many NFL scouts and has received comparisons to Patrick Mahomes, Aaron Rodgers and a young Russell Wilson. Quarterbacks with his arm strength, ability throw from multiple arm angles/platforms, field vision and mobility are rare -- which is why he's the overwhelming favorite among NFL scouts to be the first pick. His ability as a creator stands out most. His 82.3 Total QBR is good for 11th in the nation this season, and his 11 rushing touchdowns rank fifth among quarterbacks.
Calling anyone a "lock" is always risky, but in a poll of 10 scouts and front office personnel, everyone believed Williams will go No. 1. And I've personally had him as the top prospect in this class for more than two years.
That said, some scouts wonder if there is still room for movement at the top of the board. After all, USC lost five games in 2023, and Williams was sacked 33 times and had eight fumbles.
Field Yates explains why NFL franchises could have a tough time picking between Caleb Williams and Drake Maye at No. 1.
"Williams is the top guy right now, but things can change once the interviews start and the combine happens," said an AFC South scout who has seen Williams play live this season. "Remember last year, Young was a 'lock,' then the combine happened and C.J. Stroud killed it and Anthony Richardson killed it, and the narrative changed for a while. That could happen with Drake Maye or Jayden Daniels or J.J. McCarthy in the next four months."
Maye -- who has declared -- is more than just a consolation prize to teams that miss out on Williams. At 6-foot-4 and 230 pounds, he has an arm like Herbert's and uses his mobility to pick up tough yards when pressed outside the pocket. He can be raw with ball placement and lower-body mechanics, but his best throws are jaw-droppers.
And the reality is Maye grades out higher than many recent class's QB1s. Let's go back a decade. I have Maye graded higher than Young (QB1 in 2023), Kenny Pickett (2022), Kyler Murray (2019), Mayfield (2018), Mitch Trubisky (2017) and Blake Bortles (2014). He is a legitimate franchise quarterback, and even with Williams being the clear favorite to go first, there will be many teams jockeying for position to select him.
"For Maye or someone else to take that top spot [from Williams], I think interviews are important, but it's also a matter of preference and scheme. What offense are you running? What division are you in? Maye is much bigger than Williams, and that alone could swing a decision," said an AFC North area scout. "In our division, size could be the tiebreaker if you have them rated closely -- especially when you look at how Bryce Young is struggling [in Carolina]."
Which quarterback has the most impressive trait?
Scouts had a lot of different answers here. Williams' field vision. Maye's second-effort mobility. McCarthy's efficiency. But it was Daniels' deep ball that was mentioned the most.
"The dude's touch down the field is really special," said an NFC area scout.
Daniels -- who officially declared for the draft on Monday -- first showed off his deep accuracy during his freshman year at Arizona State, and it has developed very well over the course of his college career. In 2023, Daniels threw 20 touchdown passes -- and zero interceptions -- on passes over 20 air yards. That's six more than anyone else, and 11 of them were aired out 30-plus yards downfield.
"A lot of these [QBs] have special traits, but his deep ball should be glorified," said another NFC scout who covers the SEC.
Daniels' ability to layer the ball over the top of defenders and how well he leads LSU's wide receivers -- including top prospects Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr. -- into space is truly elite. His 99.6 QBR throwing to vertical routes led the nation this season.
Who is the biggest QB riser in the class so far?
It's Daniels again. In fact, no player, regardless of position, has risen more on my board this season than the 2023 Heisman Trophy winner. He's now No. 8 overall for me.
Over the summer, Daniels was receiving Day 3 grades from National Scouting Report and BLESTO Scouting Services, which NFL teams staff for early scouting assessments. One of those area scouts involved said in a text, "Daniels was a fun Day 3-type guy who had some nice traits but hadn't put it all together. Well, he put it together this year."
An LSU staffer told me that Daniels was the hardest worker during the team's summer practices and workouts, dedicated to not only adding strength to his lean 6-foot-4 frame but also improving his play from within the pocket. Coaches emphasized keeping his eyes up and down the field. It paid off, with Daniels throwing for 40 touchdown passes and four interceptions while completing 72.2% of his passes.
The class's QB3 was something of a debate all season, with Ewers, McCarthy and Sanders all getting some consideration there. But for now, Daniels is secure as my third-ranked quarterback. He continued to improve each week, and it doesn't hurt that he was the best QB in college football while battling it out in the competitive SEC.
"It's not crazy to think there are teams that will have Daniels as QB2," said an NFC general manager. "If you are building a team where the quarterback being mobile is a priority, Daniels could easily be your pick over Maye."
Mel Kiper Jr. explains how Jayden Daniels rose from a midround pick to number eight overall on his big board.
I spoke to another NFL exec late last week about the quarterbacks, and after 45 minutes of tossing around names, he said, "I think you like Daniels more than you realize!" His game fits well with the NFL, and yes, there is a path to him rising to QB2.
Is there someone whom teams are higher on than consensus?
"You know who's going to go higher than anyone thinks?" asked an AFC East scout last week via text. "J.J. McCarthy."
The Michigan quarterback is loved by scouts who have studied his game and have seen the junior passer throw in person. McCarthy is efficient; he has posted a QBR of 89.2, good for third in the nation, while throwing 19 touchdown passes to four interceptions.
"I think a lot of people haven't done a deep dive on McCarthy yet," said a scout who covers the Michigan area, "but when they do, he's going to rise. He would dominate an event like the Senior Bowl."
The main knock on McCarthy's game this year has more to do with the Wolverines than his skill set. Michigan's scheme doesn't ask for a lot of pure passing from him. The Wolverines run the ball early and often, with McCarthy attempting only 287 passes this season (77th in the FBS) and averaging 19.3 per game against their three ranked opponents toward the end of the season. He didn't attempt a single pass in the second half of a 24-15 win over Penn State in mid-November!
And because Michigan throws only 44.5% of the time (124th out of 133 teams), McCarthy hasn't been able to showcase his passing ability to a high level. That has led to questions the junior simply can't answer on tape. He must rely on the pre-draft process, should he declare for the draft. As of now, McCarthy sits at No. 19 overall on my board, but he could absolutely rise as we get closer to draft time.
"To me, he's an athletic Kirk Cousins," said the Michigan region scout.
Who is the best Day 3 option?
Tulane's Pratt is the top Day 3 quarterback on most boards, and he is the only passer I have ranked between No. 50 and No. 175 overall. He threw 22 touchdown passes and five interceptions this season while averaging 8.5 yards per attempt, and he recently opted out of the Military Bowl against Virginia Tech.
"Pratt is a high-end backup option, but he's very solid as a total-field passer, accurate and has enough mobility to move around some. Oddly enough, I think he's a similar player to what Jake Browning is doing in Cincinnati right now," said an NFC South scout.
South Carolina's Spencer Rattler is the next-best option. The former Oklahoma quarterback transferred to South Carolina before the 2022 season and has had marginal success. At 6 feet and 216 pounds, he loves to roll out and fire deep shots. That has created some highlight-worthy plays but an equal number of turnovers. Sure, he's a playmaker with 93 total touchdowns in his four years of college, but 32 interceptions will bring pause. And his 20 picks over the past two seasons are concerning enough to knock him down to the middle of Day 3 despite fantastic mobility and arm strength.
Still, an NFC South scout cautioned to get ready for the rise of Rattler. "Rattler, two years ago, looked like a future first-rounder but just didn't develop at Oklahoma. But watch him at the Senior Bowl, and that arm strength will have you thinking he should be rated much higher than you have him right now. Guaranteed."
In an NFL where demand at quarterback always exceeds supply, there is a possibility that as many as 12 teams could be seeking a starter-level competitor for their quarterback room in April. So if someone misses out on Williams, Maye, Daniels, McCarthy, Nix and Penix, then some late-round QBs could get picked earlier than expected.