The deal: Los Angeles Dodgers acquire RHP Tyler Glasnow and OF Manuel Margot from the Tampa Bay Rays for RHP Ryan Pepiot and OF Jonny Deluca
The Dodgers needed a starting pitcher. The Rays needed to trim some payroll. It's no surprise then that the two clubs matched up on a deal for Glasnow, with the Dodgers acquiring one of the most talented and intriguing pitchers in the game -- and his $25 million salary for 2024 -- and the Rays getting a projectable young pitcher in return.
The deal will be official once Glasnow signs an extension with L.A., which should happen soon as the two sides are finalizing a five-year, $135 million contract, sources tell ESPN's Jess Passan. The deal will start this coming season, and the total could get to $145 million if the Dodgers exercise a $30 million club option in the fifth year. If not, Glasnow has a $20 million player option.
Let's break down the trade:
Dodgers: It didn't take long for the Dodgers to spend some of the millions they won't be paying Shohei Ohtani in 2024, acquiring a potential No. 1 starter in Glasnow. It's a move that makes sense for both teams: The Dodgers have to replace 99 starts from last year's roster, and the Rays were desperate to move Glasnow's salary (and were able to include Margot and his $10 million salary as well).
Why "potential" ace, when Glasnow has shown periods when he can be as dominant as any starting pitcher in the game? After all, in 2019, he had a 1.78 ERA in 12 starts. In 2021, he had a 2.66 ERA and 123 strikeouts in 88 innings across 14 starts before going down with Tommy John surgery. In 2023, he had a 12-start stretch where he had a 2.30 ERA, finishing the season with the second-highest strikeout rate of any pitcher with at least 100 innings.
The upside for Glasnow is Cy Young contender -- if he can stay healthy and pitch 180 innings. Which he has never come close to doing. His 21 starts and 120 innings in 2023 were both career highs; his best WAR for a season is just 2.5. Even though he's now 30 years old, on some level, Glasnow has remained more tantalizing potential than actual production. The Dodgers would probably be happy if he can deliver 160 innings and a 4-WAR season.
That's what the Rays were hoping for in 2023, but Glasnow injured an oblique at the end of spring training and didn't make his first start until May 27. (He also missed a couple starts in August with back spasms.) But in his first full season back from TJ surgery, he remained a beast. He was throwing 97 mph before his surgery and returned averaging 96.4 mph with his four-seamer. His curveball remains arguably the best in the game, an absolute wipeout pitch. Since 2019, batters have hit .114 against it with a ridiculous 66% strikeout rate, including .095 in 2023 (somehow, Jake Bauers and Anthony Santander hit home runs off it).
The Dodgers can now front their rotation with two of the hardest throwers in the game. Last year, Bobby Miller led all starters with an average fastball velocity of 98.9 mph; Glasnow ranked 13th.
Beyond that, Walker Buehler will hopefully be ready to return from Tommy John surgery this season after missing all of 2023. If the Dodgers can get close to 90 starts from that trio, we can probably count on them winning the National League West -- even if the back of the rotation is the same revolving door that it was in 2023. For now, Emmet Sheehan, Gavin Stone, Michael Grove and Ryan Yarbrough return to battle for rotation spots, while rookies such as Nick Frasso, Landon Knack and River Ryan are potential options at some point as well. As always, the Dodgers' farm system is loaded, which is why trading Pepiot is more like a paper cut.
And of course, this doesn't mean they won't go after another veteran starter. Will that be Yoshinobu Yamamoto? Ohtani's deferred payment structure certainly gives them more flexibility to add another big salary. With all the young starters in the pipeline, they could also add more of short-term play like Michael Wacha or even a return engagement with Hyun-jin Ryu -- or they look to work out an extension with Glasnow, who is a free agent after 2024.
Margot is mostly a platoon bat/defensive replacement these days, giving the Dodgers a right-handed outfield bat to split time with Jason Heyward in right field since Mookie Betts will be more of a full-time second baseman. Margot didn't hit lefties much last season (.277/.293/.372, one home run in 94 at-bats) but he's fine (if expensive) as a fourth outfielder.
I do love the deal for the Dodgers, although I can't give it an "A" because of Glasnow's durability concerns. He also hasn't been good in the postseason, with a 5.72 ERA across 10 starts. But I think his best season is yet to come, and it wouldn't be a surprise to see him starting the first game of the postseason for the Dodgers.
Grade: B+
Rays: The Rays' return on Glasnow was always going to be somewhat limited given his high salary and the fact that teams knew Tampa Bay pretty much had to trade him. They did well enough to acquire Pepiot, who has been up-and-down as a pitching prospect for a few years now. He moved up the lists after a breakout season in the minors in 2021, struggled with his control in the majors in 2022 (27 walks in 36⅓ innings) and then battled an oblique injury in 2023 that delayed his first major league appearance until August.
Over eight appearances last year -- three starts and five extended relief outings -- Pepiot looked better than ever, harnessing his previous control issues and walking just five batters in 42 innings with 38 strikeouts while holding batters to a .179 average. Pepiot's changeup has been regarded as his best pitch, and he regained the feel for it this year after it regressed in 2022. He threw it 35% of the time in the majors, so it remains the key to his success. His slider also improved, giving him a more consistent three-pitch repertoire to go with his 94 mph fastball.
I will point out that not one of Pepiot's eight appearances came against one of the top dozen offenses in the majors. The best lineup he faced was the San Diego Padres, who finished 13th in runs scored, and they were the one team to do some damage against him, scoring four runs and hitting two home runs. Still, it's a classic Rays acquisition, particularly in exchange for a veteran at the end of his years of team control: a young player with five years remaining of team control who won't even be eligible for arbitration until 2026.
Pepiot is hardly a sure thing -- if he was, the Dodgers wouldn't have traded him -- but there's enough here to see why the Rays like him. He'll certainly join a rotation that has holes to fill: no Glasnow, Shane McClanahan out for the year, Drew Rasmussen and Jeffrey Springs not returning until the second half in best-case scenarios.
Meanwhile, Deluca looks like a cheaper version of Margot: a right-handed bat with decent contact ability and limited power who might platoon with Josh Lowe -- or potentially work his way into a bigger role if the Rays trade Randy Arozarena (less likely now that they were able to dump Margot). A lot of Rays trades end up looking a lot better down the road, and given their success in player development on both sides of the ball, it wouldn't be shocking to see Pepiot and even Deluca turn into solid contributors -- which would be a more-than-fair return for one year of Glasnow.