NFL Week 16 latest buzz, upset picks, early offseason intel

Week 16 of the 2023 NFL season is here, and league insiders Jeremy Fowler and Dan Graziano are breaking down the biggest questions, latest news and notable buzz of the week. Plus, they picked out which teams are on upset watch and which players should -- or shouldn't -- be in your fantasy football lineups.

Let's look ahead to the offseason this week as the season winds down. What are we hearing on the now-open Chargers coaching and GM jobs? Which free agent quarterbacks could have sneaky big markets? And who might be this season's big-name player to get traded by the time free agency opens? It's all here, as Dan and Jeremy answer big questions and empty their notebooks with everything they've heard heading into Week 16.

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Chargers vacancies | Free agent QBs
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What are you hearing on potential candidates to land the now-open Chargers coaching and GM jobs?

Graziano: You'll hear Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson mentioned here, as you do for basically every open (or soon-to-be open) job at this point. Johnson's likely to be in demand, and we don't know right now whether the Chargers would outspend other teams to get him or whether Los Angeles would be his first choice. It sounds like it'll be a popular job opening due to the presence of franchise QB Justin Herbert. I've also heard that the Chargers could be a place Bill Belichick might want to go if the Patriots do in fact move on from him. That'd be a shorter-term play for the Chargers, of course, but they're always trying to find ways to goose fan interest out there, so I'm not ruling it out.

I don't have a feel for Jim Harbaugh's plans or how NFL teams are viewing him, but I wouldn't be surprised -- if he is interested in a return to the NFL -- if that were the spot he had his eye on. Again, folks will line up to coach Herbert.

Fowler: The Chargers are in the preliminary stages, gathering information as they prep for the interview cycle. I don't sense they have zeroed in on any particular candidate at this time and will likely cast the proverbial wide net, seeking the right catch for Herbert. Let's start with Harbaugh: He has ties to the Spanos family and likely would have interest in this coveted job. And he would be a local draw for a team that needs it. But some around the league are skeptical that the Chargers would relinquish power and/or meet the financial demands for a candidate such as Harbaugh.

Going with an ascending coordinator might make more sense. My guess is the Chargers lean offense as a way to maximize Herbert. You mentioned Johnson; he will be at or near the top of just about every list. But the defensive class is considered deeper and will have intriguing candidates, and I expect the Chargers to tap into that. Cowboys coordinator Dan Quinn is largely considered one of the top names yet again.

Graziano: I would think the GM job has to be tied to the coach job in some respects. If they hire Johnson or one of the hot coordinators, for instance, the Chargers probably go with a more traditional GM/coach structure. But if they hire Harbaugh or Belichick, they probably do so under the premise that he ends up having a lot of say -- if not total control -- on the personnel side. That's another reason people I talk to are skeptical of the big-swing hire in L.A. The Chargers have a traditional-leaning ownership group likely to go with a traditional structure. You got a list of guys they could pursue if they do that?

Fowler: Well, interim JoJo Wooden is a respected executive who has interviewed for multiple openings in the past. I expect him to get a hard look over these next four weeks. A top candidate across the board will be 49ers assistant general manager Adam Peters, though San Francisco could eventually slide him into its own GM role if John Lynch moves into a broader football operations role. And Bears assistant GM Ian Cunningham has some steam coming off the 2023 cycle -- he turned down the Cardinals' GM job.

Which of these free agent QBs will have the biggest market in 2024: Baker Mayfield, Gardner Minshew or Ryan Tannehill?

Fowler: Mayfield. He has exceeded expectations in Tampa Bay and is having his best passing season as a pro. He just went into Lambeau and posted the first perfect passer rating (158.3) by a non-Packer in that stadium, and his 24 touchdown passes to eight interceptions is among the best clips of the league. He's streaky, and "bad Baker" can still emerge on occasion. Tampa Bay is 0-4 when Mayfield attempts 35 or more passes this season, so he needs a controlled environment. But he doesn't have a game with multiple interceptions.

Mayfield is, quite clearly, the No. 2 free agent quarterback behind Kirk Cousins. Where do you stand with the field, Dan?

Graziano: I agree on Mayfield. Of these three, he's the likeliest bet to hit free agency as someone who looks like a clear starter for a team next season. If he finishes 2023 strong, I could see him getting a really nice contract somewhere -- maybe even in Tampa Bay.

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I know Minshew wants to be a starter again, and he has surely shown this season that he can handle the job. But I also wonder if Indy might be the perfect spot for him. Starting QB Anthony Richardson will still be in his development phase even once he's back and healthy (shoulder) next year, and I think it could be in the Colts' best interests to keep Minshew around in the role they envisioned for him this season. That feels like a win-win, unless there's a team out there willing to promise Minshew a starting job.

Fowler: Yeah, Minshew has been awesome, but it's hard to see him as more than a high-level No. 2 or a bridge starter at this stage -- a really good one, to be sure. He'd be perfect in a situation where the team drafts a quarterback in the first round but wants to sit that rookie for a year, which I know doesn't happen much anymore. Mayfield has a little more passing ability, so he gets the edge.

Tannehill is interesting. I'm not sure there's a logical home for him as a starter somewhere, but he had his best years under Arthur Smith, former Titans OC turned Falcons coach. Perhaps a reunion there makes sense.

Graziano: I do wonder about Tannehill. He has had the most sustained success as an NFL starter of anyone in this group, but he'll also be 36 when training camp opens next year. Would he want to go somewhere and fight for a starting job, or back up a young quarterback coming into the league? Would you have to promise him your starting QB job in order to land him? And if so, who would do that?

Part of me wonders if Tannehill could just do what Joe Flacco did last season -- chill in some kind of semi-retirement mode until someone needs a veteran to step in and his phone rings during the season. I don't know where his head is on this, but he's a fascinating case for me.

Fowler: All of these guys will probably play meaningful snaps next season at some point due to the severe attrition at the position that now feels like a trend.

Give us the name of this year's Jalen Ramsey -- the star veteran who could get traded before 2024 free agency opens in March.

Graziano: Davante Adams is the obvious one to me. Even if the interim guys keep the jobs (which is possible), the Raiders are going to have a different coach and GM than they had when they acquired Adams and signed him to a contract extension. One of the reasons the star receiver went there was to play with quarterback Derek Carr, who's no longer there.

Adams has played the good soldier and not requested a trade, but I do think there's a strong chance he gets to the offseason and he and/or the team decide it's best to move on. Whether that means he ends up in New Orleans with Carr or New York with old buddy Aaron Rodgers or somewhere else entirely, the acquiring team would have to pay him $16.89 million guaranteed next season, and the Raiders would take on a dead money cap hit of around $23 million.

Fowler: I'll go Jonathan Allen. Washington's Pro Bowl defensive tackle is not overly eager to withstand another rebuild, and I've heard that has been the case for a while now. Teams called on Allen's availability at the trade deadline, but Washington wasn't interested. It's probably worth the Commanders -- who could strip things down to the studs with a new coach and general manager pairing -- looking into his value. His salary of $14 million (cap hit of $21.5 million) is reasonable for a player of his caliber.

Graziano: For sure. A lot of potential changes there in Washington. I'm going to stick with the wide receiver position, though, and mention a few more possibilities: Stefon Diggs, Brandon Aiyuk and Tee Higgins. Diggs' situation in Buffalo could depend a lot on the way the rest of the Bills' season goes, as he has had some well-publicized issues with the way things have worked there over the past year and could -- if they have another disappointing finish -- decide he'd rather be elsewhere. Aiyuk is a brilliant talent whom the 49ers would love to keep, but he's due for a contract extension, and they can't keep everyone. Higgins didn't get the extension he was looking for this offseason, and while he's a strong candidate for a franchise tag, he also could be on the move if the Bengals were to get a lot in return.

Fowler: All good calls. Higgins would have a strong market on a tag-and-trade scenario. He's 24 years old with No. 1 receiver traits.

Panthers edge rusher Brian Burns could also be a name to watch here. Contract talks fell apart, and there's a good chance the Panthers will franchise-tag him. If the sides continue to struggle to reach a deal, Carolina might be inclined to ship him to a contender, which I don't think he would mind all that much at this stage.

What's your top upset pick for Week 16?

Graziano: Commanders (+3) over Jets. It's a battle between two teams that looked completely checked out for most of the day Sunday. But while the Jets never woke up, the Commanders did and made it a game late against the Rams once Jacoby Brissett came in for Sam Howell at quarterback. Howell is set to start this week, but I think we saw a spark from Washington in Week 15 that wasn't there for the Jets, and I'm not sure why we should expect to see one from them the rest of the way.

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Fowler: Steelers (+2.5) over Bengals. Pittsburgh coach Mike Tomlin hasn't lost four in a row since 2013, and he won't start now. Yes, the Steelers' offense is a mess, but perhaps Mason Rudolph, a Steelers draft pick back in 2018, can spark them. And Bengals receiver Ja'Marr Chase's questionable availability helps Pittsburgh offset its attrition issues in the secondary.

What's your fantasy football call of the week?

Fowler: Start Chris Godwin. The Buccaneers receiver's 10-catch, 155-yard performance in Green Bay was his first above 80 yards since Week 4. It's a one-game sample, but the Bucs might have found something. He's potent in the slot, and Mayfield has made the adjustment to look for him there more often. Tampa Bay has a more balanced running game now, too, which should help. Godwin's health has been an issue in previous weeks, but he's good to go now.

Graziano: I'm going to take your advice on that, Jeremy, especially with Keenan Allen and Chris Olave banged up on one of my teams that's still alive. Godwin needs to come through for me.

My answer here, though, would be to keep James Cook in your lineup. I don't think his performance against the Cowboys was a fluke (221 total yards and two scores). The Chargers are allowing the fifth-most fantasy points per game to running backs this season, and my sense of things in Buffalo is the Bills would like to avoid leaning on QB Josh Allen until they absolutely have to -- i.e. the playoffs, or maybe the Week 18 game in Miami. If they need Allen to win them a shootout, they're more than comfortable relying on his arm and legs. But I think they'll try to attack the Chargers the same way they attacked the Cowboys -- and unless the Chargers show they can stop it, I think the Bills will stick with it.

What else are you hearing this week?

Graziano's notebook:

• With Christian Kirk already out with a groin injury and Zay Jones injuring his hamstring in Sunday night's loss to the Ravens, the Jaguars' wide receiver corps is getting thin. Whenever Trevor Lawrence returns from concussion protocol, he'll have fewer options in the passing game. The team is going to look for a bigger contribution from sixth-round rookie Parker Washington.

I asked Jones about Washington and here's what he told me: "Parker's a guy that's very young, but he demonstrates a high level of maturity about himself. He's very meticulous in the way he studies and the way he prepares. Parker doesn't say a lot of words, but I think that's because he's doing so much listening, trying to soak everything in. Which is great to see from a rookie. He's soft-spoken, but he plays demonstrative. He shows no signs of true fear at his age, which I think is important for people to understand. Because it's very hard to come in as a rookie, handle punt returns and also have to step in as a starting wide receiver for someone like Christian Kirk."

Look for Washington to get more opportunities moving forward as the Jags try to hold off Houston and Indianapolis for the AFC South title.

• Some injury updates on star wide receivers for this week: First, I don't get the impression that the Bengals are optimistic on Chase for this week. He could miss a game or two with that shoulder injury. And Miami's Tyreek Hill (ankle) would like to be as close as possible to 100% before playing, and the team agrees with him. Keep an eye on his practice work this week to see whether he shows improvement, but I think there's a decent possibility he misses another game.

The Chargers' Keenan Allen missed another practice Tuesday with his heel injury that cost him last Thursday's game against the Raiders. The Chargers play Saturday. Allen was at practice Tuesday, which was encouraging, but he didn't get any work in. The Chargers would like to see Allen get through at least a limited practice or two before deciding whether he can play in Week 16. And finally, I am told the Saints' Chris Olave has a chance to return from his ankle injury to play Thursday night against the Rams. He was listed as a limited participant in Tuesday's practice report.

• What are the Chiefs going to do about Kadarius Toney, whose weekly mistakes are either costing them games or making games more difficult to win? "Just keep coaching him" was the response I got from a team source in Kansas City. After putting Skyy Moore on injured reserve this week, the Chiefs are thinner than ever at wide receiver. They're happy with the improvements rookie Rashee Rice has shown, but they know they need Toney to produce. He made plays last season that helped them get to and win the Super Bowl, so they know what he's capable of when he's playing his best. They just need him to be more reliable in the details, and they think positive reinforcement is the way to get him there.

I could be wrong, and the Chiefs could change their plans, but I expect Toney to keep getting chances, in spite of his issues. One of the key principles of Andy Reid and his coaching staff is to not give up on talented players. They coached Moore last season through the early-season struggles he had on punt returns, and when they needed him to deliver a big punt return in the AFC Championship Game, he came through.

Fowler's notebook:

• Something to monitor in Carolina is the potential of pairing a first-time offensive head coach with current defensive coordinator Ejiro Evero. This model has worked for Indianapolis, which hired Shane Steichen while keeping defensive coordinator Gus Bradley under contract. And that's what Miami did with coach Mike McDaniel, who was hired in 2022 under the stipulation that Josh Boyer remain as coordinator. The Dolphins eventually replaced Boyer with Vic Fangio, but the blueprint is the same: support the young offensive coach with stability on the other side.

After asking around, the sense is the Panthers are at least intrigued by this idea. Evero has done an impressive job with the Panthers' defense, which ranks third in total defense and passing defense despite minimal offensive help and a rash of injuries. He will most likely be on the head-coaching interview circuit and could interview in-house with Carolina, but with him under contract with the Panthers, he's an asset they'd like to keep should they focus on offense with their coaching search, as most expect.

• Speaking of coordinators, several spots will be closely watched over the coming weeks. The heat is on Packers DC Joe Barry. That's a job on the radar of many in the coaching industry.

If Dennis Allen remains as the Saints' coach, he could be faced with some coaching changes after the season. The offense has been uneven, which places the spotlight on OC Pete Carmichael, though it's trending upward the past two weeks. Still, the playcaller spot is at least one to watch. In Philly, Matt Patricia is poised to get the rest of the season to see what he can do with the offense. Streamlining communication issues that plagued the Sean Desai era will be a focus. And in Buffalo, interim OC Joe Brady is increasing his chances to earn the full-time job by the week. Some around the league definitely believe he can get the job for 2024.

• Star linebacker Devin White's place on the Bucs' inactive list last week was curious, but his foot injury has lingered for a while, and as a source told me, "He will be back out there when he is healthy." When that happens is still uncertain. It's possible the Bucs were willing to limit White's snaps Sunday in Green Bay in order to ease concerns about the foot. Complicating matters is K.J. Britt, who has played well in recent weeks.

• The NFL's diversity efforts at the coaching and executive levels were a focus at last week's owners meeting in Dallas, and there's much for the league to boast: Women or people of color now comprise 51% of the 32-team workforce. The percentage of minority coaches has increased from 35% to 43% since 2020, including 14 defensive coordinators. And Raiders interim GM Champ Kelly is one of 10 minority general managers.

One glaring issue, though, is offensive coaching. Washington's Eric Bieniemy, Philadelphia's Brian Johnson and Pittsburgh's interim OC Eddie Faulkner are the only Black offensive coordinators. That's why the league has high hopes for an emerging group of quarterback coaches. Coaching the game's most important position tends to create more opportunity. This summer's Quarterback Coaching Summit in Los Angeles, an event for minority candidates co-hosted by the NFL and the Black College Football Hall of Fame, featured several quarterback coaches who are doing notable work with passers, including Houston's Jerrod Johnson (C.J. Stroud exploded onto the scene), Tampa Bay's Thad Lewis (helped revitalize Mayfield) and Tennessee's Charles London (oversaw Will Levis' promising rookie stint).