The College Football Playoff selection committee doesn't officially meet to start deliberating its first of six rankings until Monday, so the only clues to what it might do are found in written protocols and past decisions.
Statement wins always have and always will loom large, as will elite talent and Heisman Trophy-caliber athletes, where games are played and how contests unfold. Head-to-head results (sometimes), common opponents and FCS opponents also are considered. So are injuries to key players, like Georgia All-American tight end Brock Bowers.
Nowhere in the protocol does it say anything about how to handle allegations of cheating against Michigan. Which is why several former selection committee members have said this current group will probably rank the Wolverines based on how they have played so far -- and leave the gossip in the hallway. If a team is eligible for the postseason, it's eligible to be ranked.
So far, that hasn't changed for Michigan.
What might change is the SEC's place in the top four.
The SEC has had the top team in 43 of the past 54 total CFP rankings. No team has been ranked No. 1 more than Alabama (24 times), followed by Georgia (12). Both could be on the outside looking in, with their season-defining games still looming.
How much will Tuesday's ranking foreshadow what happens on Selection Day? According to ESPN Stats & Information, seven of the nine No. 1 teams in the first CFP ranking of each season have reached the playoff. The only exceptions were Mississippi State in 2014, the inaugural season of the playoff, and Tennessee last year.
So who will have the honor of starting this season No. 1? Here is a prediction not only for the top spot but for the first 12.
1. Ohio State Buckeyes (8-0)
Why they could be here: With victories against Penn State and Notre Dame -- both of whom won Saturday -- the Buckeyes have the best résumé to date. If the Nittany Lions and Fighting Irish are both top-15 teams as expected on Tuesday, Ohio State would be able to claim something the other contenders would not: multiple wins against highly ranked opponents. Saturday's road win against a Wisconsin team above .500 will only bolster Ohio State's case. The Buckeyes also have an elite roster, particularly on defense, and a Heisman hopeful in wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr.
Why they could be lower: One of Ohio State's wins was against FCS Youngstown State. And overall, the Buckeyes haven't been as efficient offensively as other contenders, including Michigan, Oregon, Washington and Georgia. The wins against Notre Dame and Penn State were both by single digits, and the game in South Bend, Indiana, came down to the last second.
What to know: The Buckeyes entered Saturday with the best chance to make the CFP, according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor; they were No. 1 in ESPN's strength of record metric and No. 1 in ESPN's FPI. Penn State's win against Indiana on Saturday -- albeit an unconvincing one -- was a boost to Ohio State's chances of earning the top spot.
2. Florida State Seminoles (8-0)
Why they could be higher: Their best win is against LSU, a team that can still win the SEC West, and the overall quality of opponents the Seminoles have defeated is stronger than that of most other contenders. The committee doesn't just value wins against ranked opponents. It also considers wins against Power 5 teams .500 or better, and that includes everyone on the Seminoles' schedule except the Sun Belt's Southern Miss (1-6). The Noles didn't play an FCS opponent, and they won three true road games plus the neutral-site tilt in Orlando, Florida.
Why they could be lower: It certainly didn't help that Duke lost to Louisville on Saturday, and the Blue Devils are in jeopardy of not being ranked in the committee's first top 25. The overtime win at Clemson has been significantly devalued now that the Tigers have lost four games before November. And while Washington has only one statement win -- against Oregon -- it could be more valuable to the committee than the Noles' win in Orlando against LSU. There was also the lackluster performance at Boston College.
What to know: FSU entered Saturday ranked No. 3 in the country in total efficiency and No. 11 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. A common trait among past playoff participants has been this kind of elite balance.
3. Georgia Bulldogs (8-0)
Why they could be higher: Georgia played its best against the toughest competition, Kentucky and Florida, winning both games by at least three touchdowns. Saturday's convincing triumph against the Gators presented a chance to show the committee it can still be a top-four team without the injured Bowers. And the Bulldogs' defense is still one of the best in the country. While the committee members will focus on the résumé in front of them, they're also 13 humans who are well aware of Georgia's back-to-back titles.
Why they could be lower: Georgia opened with four straight home games against unranked teams, including FCS opponent UT Martin. If the committee doesn't rank Kentucky or Florida -- which both now have three losses -- the Bulldogs won't have any wins against ranked opponents. Those are also the only two FBS opponents with a winning record that Georgia has defeated.
What to know: It helped Georgia that Oklahoma lost to Kansas on Saturday, because the Sooners had been another undefeated Power 5 team with a better win (against Texas).
4. Washington Huskies (8-0)
Why they could be higher: The Huskies' victory against Oregon looks even better following the Ducks' convincing win at Utah on Saturday. Assuming the committee has Oregon in its top 10 -- and ahead of LSU and Alabama -- it will arguably be the best win in the country, at least right now. It also will be more valuable than any standalone win any of the other undefeated contenders can boast. Washington's explosive offense, led by Heisman-hopeful quarterback Michael Penix Jr., will impress the committee, as well. Washington also scored 59 points against Cal, a team that just gave USC fits.
Why they could be lower: For the second straight week, Washington has struggled in a win. The Huskies' usually high-flying offense was held to just 15 points in a victory against 2-6 Arizona State. On Saturday, Washington was fortunate to escape a relentless Stanford team that is now 2-6. The Huskies had a fumble and an interception in the red zone. Washington also has only two wins against Power 5 opponents .500 or better -- Oregon and Arizona. As good as the win against the Ducks is, it's also the only statement win Washington has.
What to know: Washington entered Saturday's game at Stanford ranked No. 4 in ESPN's strength of record metric and No. 72 in strength of schedule.
5. Michigan Wolverines (8-0)
Why they could be higher: Nobody in the country has been as consistently dominant as Michigan, which ranks No. 1 in ESPN's game control metric. The Wolverines have a Heisman contender in veteran quarterback J.J. McCarthy and are No. 2 in the country in total efficiency. Michigan also is one of the nation's most fundamentally sound and disciplined teams, with only five turnovers and fewer than three penalties per game.
Why they could be lower: Like Georgia, the Wolverines also opened the season with four straight home games against unranked opponents. Unlike Georgia, two of them were against FBS teams with winning records (UNLV and Rutgers). Michigan's best win is against Rutgers.
What to know: The Wolverines entered their bye week ranked No. 110 in ESPN's strength of schedule metric and No. 9 in strength of record.
6. Oregon Ducks (7-1)
Why they could be higher: Oregon has one of the nation's top offenses, led by Heisman-contending quarterback Bo Nix, who threw only two incomplete passes through the Ducks' first six drives against Utah. The Ducks also have three wins against Power 5 teams .500 or better (Colorado, Washington State and Utah) and one victory against what should be a ranked CFP team in Utah. Four road wins is a detail the committee will notice, especially Saturday's against the Utes. The Ducks have turned the ball over twice all season, and they entered Week 9 with one of the top defenses in the Pac-12. Oregon has a league-high 25 sacks.
Why they could be lower: Oregon has a win against FCS Portland State, and the nonconference road victory against 3-5 Texas Tech isn't going to help. Texas' win at Alabama could be more impressive to the committee.
What to know: How Oregon beat Utah on Saturday -- so soundly on the Utes' turf -- will likely be part of the discussion. The back-to-back Pac-12 champs had won 18 straight home games.
7. Texas Longhorns (7-1)
Why they could be higher: The Longhorns' double-digit road victory at Alabama remains one of the best wins of the season, and their only loss was to their rival, Oklahoma, by four points. Even without injured starting quarterback Quinn Ewers, the Longhorns earned a convincing home win on Saturday against BYU. Following the Kansas upset of Oklahoma on Saturday, it's possible the selection committee has the Jayhawks in their top 25. That would give Texas a second win against a ranked opponent, along with the victory against the Crimson Tide. With the exceptions of Baylor and Houston, all the Longhorns' wins have come against FBS opponents at .500 or better.
Why they could be lower: Maybe Texas takes a hit simply because the Big 12 isn't a great conference this year. The Longhorns' best Big 12 win is against Kansas, and it didn't help the league that its top playoff contender -- then-undefeated Oklahoma -- lost to Kansas.
What to know: Because Oklahoma lost -- and it didn't look good in its narrow Week 8 win against 3-5 UCF -- it's possible the committee ranks Texas ahead of the Sooners in spite of the head-to-head result. This has happened before. In 2021, the committee ranked Michigan ahead of rival Michigan State in spite of the Spartans' win. It was controversial at the time, but both teams ultimately wound up proving the committee right.
8. Alabama Crimson Tide (7-1)
Why they could be higher: It's hard to imagine the committee disregarding the head-to-head game with Texas, especially considering the loss was in Tuscaloosa and both teams have continued to win and look good. If the Tide were to move up, though, it would be because of its schedule strength. The Tide have two wins against likely CFP top-25 teams Ole Miss and Tennessee, which both won again Saturday. Alabama played arguably its best half of football all season in the second half of its win against the Vols, against whom it scored 27 unanswered points. With the exception of Arkansas (2-6), all of Alabama's SEC opponents are above .500, and they have a combined record of 22-9, which is far better than Texas' Big 12 wins and even some of the undefeated contenders' résumés.
Why they could be lower: Because it's taken until the second half of the Tennessee game for Alabama to start to truly play like a CFP team again. A 17-3 win at South Florida raised questions, and Arkansas outscored Alabama 15-3 in the second half.
What to know: Alabama can clinch the SEC West next week with a win over LSU and a loss by Ole Miss against Texas A&M. The Tide's game against LSU will likely be a CFP elimination game. No two-loss team has ever made the playoff. That doesn't mean it can't happen, but it's far more difficult, especially without winning the division -- as Alabama can attest to from last season.
9. Oklahoma Sooners (7-1)
Why they could be higher: The committee could reward the Sooners' 34-30 head-to-head win against Texas and rank them above the Longhorns. The committee also will look at Oklahoma's opponents' opponents (not a typo), meaning they will consider OU beat a Texas team that also beat Alabama. Regardless of how the Sooners have fared the past two weeks, the triumph against the Longhorns should still be a top-10 win on Tuesday. Oklahoma also has one of the nation's best quarterbacks in Dillon Gabriel, and Saturday's loss to Kansas was on the road and by only five points. The committee might also not penalize OU as severely if the Jayhawks are a top-25 team.
Why they could be lower: Oklahoma simply hasn't looked like one of the nation's top playoff contenders each of the past two weeks. The defense -- which seemed great early against weaker competition -- now has allowed at least 29 points in each of the past three games. Unlike Texas, Oklahoma doesn't have a nonconference win against a Power 5 opponent, and only SMU (6-2) has a winning record of the Sooners' nonconference foes. The Big 12's newest additions also haven't done the Sooners' strength of schedule any favors, as Cincinnati and UCF are a combined 5-10.
What to know: It's likely OU's regular-season win against Texas will be its only one against a ranked opponent, which means even another victory against the Longhorns in the Big 12 title game might not be enough for a top-four finish. OU will end the regular season against Oklahoma State, West Virginia, BYU and TCU.
10. Penn State Nittany Lions (7-1)
Why they could be higher: The defense has been elite for most of the season, and there's no shortage of talent on the roster. Penn State entered Saturday's game against Indiana ranked No. 1 in the country in defensive efficiency and had held each of its first six opponents to 15 points or fewer.
Why they could be lower: Penn State lost its best opportunity to impress the selection committee when it lost at Ohio State -- and how it lost to the Buckeyes. The abysmal 1-of-16 on third downs is the kind of glaring stat that the committee would discuss. One of PSU's wins was against FCS Delaware, and its best victories were versus Iowa (6-2) and West Virginia (5-3). The Nittany Lions might not have any wins against CFP top 25 opponents, unless Iowa or WVU is in there.
What to know: It's one thing to struggle on the road against Ohio State; it's another to nearly whiff at home against a 2-6 Indiana team. PSU avoided disaster on Saturday, but those are the types of performances that can hold the Lions back in the committee meeting room -- especially without a statement win to help compensate for it.
11. Ole Miss Rebels (7-1)
Why they could be higher: If the committee has Tulane ranked, Ole Miss should have two wins against CFP top-25 teams. (LSU is the other.) The lone loss was away to a ranked Alabama squad.
Why they could be lower: LSU is the only Power 5 opponent with a winning record that Ole Miss has defeated, and it wasn't exactly a defensive clinic. The Rebels allowed LSU 49 points and 637 total yards. The committee compares common opponents, and Florida State also beat LSU but was better defensively in a 45-24 season-opening victory. The Rebels' other Power 5 wins came against opponents that are a combined 11-20, and Ole Miss only has two road wins.
What to know: The Rebels would need to run the table and have Alabama lose twice to win the SEC West.
12. Oregon State Beavers (6-2)
Why they could be higher: It would be hard for the committee to justify putting a two-loss Oregon State team ahead of the previously mentioned one-loss and undefeated teams. The Beavers' best case to move up is that victories against Utah and UCLA could represent two CFP top-25 wins, and both losses were on the road, including by three points to Washington State. Oregon State's win against UCLA was important because it showed the committee the Beavers' offense could still be productive against one of the nation's top defenses.
Why they could be lower: The Beavers don't have a Power 5 nonconference win, they played FCS opponent UC Davis, and San Jose State and San Diego State are a combined 6-10. Plus, the road wins they do have (at 3-5 San Jose State and 3-5 Cal) won't do anything to sway the committee.
What to know: The lowest a team has ever been ranked in the initial CFP ranking and still made the playoff was No. 16 Ohio State in 2014, but the Buckeyes only had one loss and went on to win the national title that year. A two-loss team has never made the CFP, but Oregon State will end the regular season with back-to-back games against Washington and Oregon, giving the Beavers ample opportunity to move up if they win out.