GRAPEVINE, Texas -- No matter which way you slice it, this is going to be a controversial decision for the College Football Playoff selection committee.
When the final ranking is revealed just after noon ET on Sunday, it will have been the most difficult decision the committee has made in the decade of the four-team playoff. Multiple teams are going to be angry. SEC runner-up Georgia could become the first No. 1 seed to fall out of the top four on Selection Day. Florida State could be the first undefeated Power 5 champ to be excluded from the playoff.
Will the committee choose the four best ... or most deserving? "It is best," CFP executive director Bill Hancock said Tuesday. "Most deserving is not anything in the committee's lexicon. They are to rank the best teams in order, and that's what they do. Just keep that word in mind: best teams."
Before the final ranking is revealed, here's one final prediction on how it could shake out, immediately following Saturday's games while the committee is actually debating its top four:
coverage:
Final bowl projections
1. Michigan Wolverines (13-0)
Previous CFP rank: No. 2
Last playoff appearance: 2022
Total playoff appearances: 2
Why they could finish here: The undefeated Wolverines punctuated their résumé with a Big Ten title against No. 16 Iowa, and they did it on a night when the committee's No. 1 team, Georgia, lost to Alabama in the SEC championship game. Michigan's best wins are against No. 6 Ohio State, No. 10 Penn State and now Iowa. The Wolverines have had an edge in the committee meeting room over the other undefeated teams, and nothing that happened during championship weekend is likely to change that. One advantage to having the No. 1 overall seed: The selection committee will not put the top seed at a geographic disadvantage in a CFP semifinal.
2. Washington Huskies (13-0)
Previous CFP rank: No. 3
Last playoff appearance: 2016
Total playoff appearances: 1
Why they could finish here: The undefeated Huskies have now beaten a top-10 Oregon team twice, adding to a résumé that also includes a win against No. 20 Oregon State and a Pac-12 title. Washington dispatched the committee's top one-loss team entering this weekend, and it could make a case for the No. 1 spot. At the very least, Washington should get a bump up in part because of Georgia's loss to Bama.
3. Texas Longhorns (12-1)
Previous CFP rank: No. 7
Last playoff appearance: N/A
Total playoff appearances: 0
Why they could finish here: The Longhorns can now claim a double-digit win against the SEC champs -- something not even back-to-back national champion Georgia can claim. The selection committee has valued that Week 2 win in Tuscaloosa all season, and it has given the Longhorns an edge against the Crimson Tide in each of the past five CFP rankings. It would be difficult for the committee to justify flipping it a day after Texas routed Oklahoma State to win the Big 12 title. The only possible reasons Alabama could finish ahead of Texas would be that the Tide faced a better opponent in their conference title game, dethroning the committee's No. 1 team in Georgia, and simply if the committee believes Alabama is better now than it was in September.
4. Alabama Crimson Tide (12-1)
Previous CFP rank: No. 8
Last playoff appearance: 2021
Total playoff appearances: 7
Why they could finish here: The Crimson Tide now own the best win of the season after defeating No. 1 Georgia to take the SEC title. It's likely the committee keeps them behind Texas, though, because of the Week 2 loss to the Longhorns. Alabama should keep alive the SEC's streak of having a team in all 10 playoffs.
5. Georgia Bulldogs (12-1)
Previous CFP rank: 1
Last playoff appearance: 2022
Total playoff appearances: 3
Why they could finish here: As good as Georgia is, the Bulldogs came up short when it mattered the most, and it happened during a season in which the field of CFP contenders is the deepest it has ever been. The burden of proof is always higher in the selection committee meeting room for teams that don't win their conference, but that's especially the case this season when there were multiple undefeated Power 5 champions for the first time. For Georgia to finish in the top four, the committee would have to deem it "unequivocally" one of the four best teams in the country. While that's certainly possible -- and Georgia played the best opponent of any of the Power 5 contenders -- any doubt in the room will keep the Bulldogs on the bubble. They would lose two tiebreakers -- the head-to-head result against Alabama and the conference title.
6. Florida State Seminoles (13-0)
Previous CFP rank: No. 4
Last playoff appearance: 2014
Total playoff appearances: 1
Why they could finish here: Florida State found a way to win again, this time with its third-string quarterback and an elite defense. The Seminoles have three wins against CFP top-25 teams, including Clemson, LSU and now Louisville, but they simply didn't look like a team capable of winning a national title. In 2014, when Ohio State was down to its third-string quarterback, the Buckeyes cracked the top four for the first time all season in large part because they embarrassed Wisconsin with a 59-0 drubbing in the Big Ten championship game. Against Louisville on Saturday, Florida State couldn't get a first down until late in the first half. The defense played at a championship-caliber level, but there were mistakes on offense that extended beyond the play of first-time starting quarterback Brock Glenn, who was replacing Tate Rodemaker, who was replacing Jordan Travis. If FSU is snubbed, it would be the first time an undefeated Power 5 team has missed the playoff. The Noles should still finish ahead of No. 7 Ohio State, No. 8 Oregon, No. 9 Missouri and No. 10 Penn State.