The College Football Playoff selection committee has been steadfast in its evaluation of injuries to key players since the system began in 2014, when Ohio State won the national title with its third-string quarterback, Cardale Jones.
The group refused to project what Ohio State might look like without starter J.T. Barrett and judged the Buckeyes that season based on how they performed to that point with whomever was in the starting lineup. It wasn't until Selection Day that Ohio State cracked the top four for the first time.
The committee, while now composed of different people and personalities, will adhere to that precedent this week following the injury to Florida State quarterback Jordan Travis on Saturday in the first half against North Alabama. The Seminoles went on to win in convincing fashion with backup Tate Rodemaker leading the offense.
If undefeated Florida State sinks to No. 5 in Tuesday's ranking, it will be less about Rodemaker and more about Washington beating its third ranked opponent this season and second in as many weeks. It's also quite possible the Seminoles stay No. 4. While Washington has had the better résumé, the selection committee has believed Florida State is the better team to this point.
The question is whether it still does based on what it saw Saturday night.
What the committee won't do is move Florida State because of any guesses of how the Noles might fare if Travis is out for a significant time.
Based on what unfolded Saturday, here's a prediction of what the committee might do in its fourth of six rankings on Tuesday evening:
1. Georgia Bulldogs (11-0)
Previous CFP rank: 1
Playoff possibilities: Georgia earned its third straight win against a ranked opponent, which should keep the Bulldogs in the top spot when the committee releases its latest ranking. The Bulldogs, who will complete their regular season against unranked rival Georgia Tech, should be undefeated going into the SEC championship game against Alabama. Georgia as an undefeated SEC champion might be the only easy decision for the selection committee this season. The dilemma will be what to do if the Bulldogs suffer their only loss of the season to Alabama in the SEC title game. If a team doesn't win its conference, the committee has to agree it is still "unequivocally" one of the four best teams in the country. It also has to consider its protocol, which includes conference championships, head-to-head results, strength of schedule and common opponents -- if the group believes two teams are comparable.
Biggest obstacle: Other Power 5 contenders if Georgia finishes as the SEC runner-up. If Georgia doesn't win the SEC, it needs to worry about every other Power 5 conference champion edging it out for a semifinal spot -- starting with Texas. If the one-loss Longhorns win the Big 12, they would have something Georgia does not in this scenario -- a double-digit win against would-be SEC champion Alabama. In addition to Texas, the Bulldogs would have to be concerned with the Pac-12, which still has two contenders in undefeated Washington and one-loss Oregon. Undefeated Florida State would be difficult to leave out as the ACC champ. And the Big Ten champ is almost certainly a lock considering both Ohio State and Michigan have been in the committee's top four all season.
2. Ohio State Buckeyes (11-0)
Previous CFP rank: No. 2
Playoff possibilities: If Ohio State beats Michigan and wins the Big Ten, it's in. The Buckeyes already have a good résumé, and back-to-back victories against ranked opponents in Michigan and Big Ten West-winner Iowa would seal their postseason. If Ohio State doesn't beat Michigan, there is an outside chance it could still finish in the top four, but it's a different scenario than last season. Ohio State again has statement wins against CFP top 25 teams Penn State and Notre Dame, but the Buckeyes also earned the No. 4 spot last season because USC lost in the Pac-12 title game and tumbled out of the fourth spot. This year, Ohio State would have a more difficult time unseating a Power 5 champion, and it also could be competing against a Georgia team that does not win its league and has been ranked ahead of the Buckeyes for consecutive weeks.
Biggest obstacle: Not losing to Michigan for a third straight season. Ohio State hasn't lost three straight to the Wolverines since 1995 to 1997. Under coach Ryan Day, the Buckeyes are 1-2 against the Wolverines and 44-4 against every other opponent, with three of those four losses coming in the CFP. Day is 32-0 against all other Big Ten teams, including in the conference championship game. As good as he has been, Day will be judged by how he fares against Michigan -- especially without its suspended head coach -- and in the playoff.
3. Michigan Wolverines (11-0)
Previous CFP rank: No. 3
Playoff possibilities: The winner of The Game will capture the Big Ten's East Division and will face Iowa in the conference championship game. It would be extremely difficult for the committee to justify a top-four finish for Michigan without the Big Ten title because of the Wolverines' otherwise weak strength of schedule. Michigan opened the season with four straight home games, and it didn't play any Power 5 nonconference opponents. Without a triumph against the Buckeyes, Michigan's only win against a CFP top 25 opponent would be versus Penn State. Michigan would lose at least two tiebreakers with several other contenders, including no conference title and strength of schedule.
Biggest obstacle: No Jim Harbaugh against Ohio State. Harbaugh will serve the final game of a three-game suspension during Michigan's most important test of the season. The committee members will consider Harbaugh's absence in their discussions -- but no differently than they do any key player or coach missing for an injury, suspension, illness or other reason. It's not an excuse to lose. It's part of their discussion as they try to answer the question: Is Michigan a top-four team without Harbaugh? While the Wolverines are 2-0 under interim coach Sherrone Moore, he will face a different kind of chess match against Ohio State coach Ryan Day, whose edge in big-game experience could be a factor.
4. Florida State Seminoles (11-0)
Previous CFP rank: No. 4
Playoff possibilities: Florida State is two wins away from finishing as an undefeated ACC champ, but it has to continue to look like a top-four team without its offensive leader if quarterback Jordan Travis misses significant playing time. One loss will likely doom FSU's playoff hopes. Even with Travis in the lineup, the Seminoles are in a tight debate with Washington in the committee meeting room. If Alabama beats Georgia, Texas wins the Big 12, Washington finishes undefeated and the undefeated Big Ten champion is in, the committee will have to determine who to exclude. One-loss Georgia? Texas, the team that beat the SEC champ? Undefeated Florida State? The Pac-12 champion? If Georgia and Ohio State win, undefeated Florida State should be an easy choice for the committee, joining either the Pac-12 champion or Texas.
Biggest obstacle: The injury to Travis. It's unclear how much time he will miss, but beating rival Florida and finishing as an undefeated ACC champ with a win against Louisville will be difficult without Travis' experience and talent. The committee won't jump to any conclusions nor will it try to guess how FSU might fare in a semifinal without him. The Noles are either a top-four team or they're not with the lineup they have.
5. Washington Huskies (11-0)
Previous CFP rank: No. 5
Playoff possibilities: If Washington finishes as an undefeated Pac-12 champion, it will have a great chance to finish in the top four with Florida State, but it might not be that simple. Washington and Florida State are both undefeated now, and the Huskies have been stuck at No. 5 despite being No. 2 in ESPN's strength of record metric. If Alabama wins the SEC and Texas wins the Big 12, the committee will consider both of them. If Alabama, Texas and the Big Ten champion are in, what does the committee do with undefeated Florida State and Washington? Maybe the same thing it's done all season. What could separate Washington from FSU in the end, though, is a tougher opponent in its conference title game, as a win against Oregon would trump a win against Louisville.
Biggest obstacle: Florida State. Washington's résumé didn't impress the selection committee enough last week to leapfrog the Seminoles because the group has lingering concerns about how the Huskies fared in wins against Stanford and Arizona State. While the Huskies added another top-25 win to their résumé on Saturday night against Oregon State, it still might not be enough to move up off the bubble. The committee seems to be waiting for Washington to assert its dominance. Sometimes, the simplest answer to justify why one team is ranked ahead of another is because the committee thinks it's better -- and that has been the case with FSU over Washington.
6. Oregon Ducks (10-1)
Previous CFP rank: No. 6
Playoff possibilities: The Ducks' dismantling of now 3-8 Arizona State is unlikely to change Oregon's place in the latest ranking, but it's another small degree of separation with Washington, which struggled to beat ASU in a 15-7 decision. Oregon should still be the selection committee's top one-loss team and looking up at the undefeated Huskies, who own the head-to-head win over the Ducks. If Oregon can avenge that regular-season loss in the Pac-12 championship game, the Ducks could emerge as the league's best hope at a semifinalist. But if Oregon stumbles in its regular-season finale against Oregon State and still wins the Pac-12, it would need very specific scenarios to unfold in the other Power 5 conference championship games in order to garner any consideration as a two-loss champ. The Ducks would need some combination of the following: Georgia eliminating two-loss Alabama. Ohio State winning the Big Ten. Florida State losing to Florida or Louisville. Or a two-loss team winning the Big 12.
Biggest obstacle: Beating Oregon State. If Oregon loses to rival Oregon State on Friday, the Ducks would have two losses and likely be eliminated -- even if they beat Washington and win the Pac-12. No two-loss team has ever made the CFP, and while it's not impossible, the reality is there will likely be other contenders with stronger résumés and fewer losses.
7. Texas Longhorns (10-1)
Previous CFP rank: No. 7
Playoff possibilities: The Longhorns need to run the table and hope Alabama wins the SEC, because they could then claim a double-digit true road win against the SEC champs -- something not even No. 1 Georgia would be able to boast. If Texas and the Crimson Tide have identical records -- and the committee deems them comparable teams -- the head-to-head result in Tuscaloosa will continue to be a focal point in the discussions. The easy decision would be for both teams to finish in the top four with the Big Ten champion and either the ACC or Pac-12 winner. Texas avoided an upset at Iowa State on Saturday night and should beat Texas Tech in Week 13, but if the Longhorns lose again, the Big 12 will almost certainly be eliminated.
Biggest obstacle: The Big 12's playoff pecking order. Texas is currently sitting behind at least one team from every other Power 5 conference. Kansas could drop out of the CFP top 25 following its loss to K-State. Aside from their victory at Alabama, the Longhorns' best wins are against Kansas and K-State. Other Power 5 champions could ultimately have more impressive résumés.
8. Alabama Crimson Tide (10-1)
Previous CFP rank: No. 8
Playoff possibilities: Alabama needs to avoid an upset at rival Auburn in the Iron Bowl and beat Georgia in the conference title game to finish as a one-loss SEC champ. The SEC winner has never been excluded in the nine-year history of the playoff, and it's hard to imagine it happening this time around. The committee won't talk about the Tide, though, without considering its Week 2 double-digit home loss to Texas. If the Longhorns finish as a one-loss Big 12 champion, the committee will have to decide if the SEC and Big 12 champs are both in the top four or if one gets in at the expense of the other. Saturday's lopsided victory against visiting Chattanooga isn't going to help Alabama, but nobody in the country has a better chance to punctuate their résumé in a conference title game than the Tide. Alabama already has three ranked wins against CFP top 25 teams (LSU, Tennessee and Ole Miss) and would earn the best win in the country if it beats Georgia, the committee's top team. Alabama's résumé would best the Longhorns' -- except for one very important game.
Biggest obstacle: Beating Georgia. The two-time defending national champions have dethroned Alabama as the kings of college football until proven otherwise. There are too many other contenders this year for Alabama to have a realistic chance at the top four as a two-loss team that doesn't win the SEC.