There has never been a player like Shohei Ohtani. There has never been a contract like this -- $700 million!?!? He's a franchise-altering unicorn, a one-of-a-kind miracle. He was so good in 2023 that he won his second unanimous Most Valuable Player Award -- becoming the first player ever to do that twice -- even though he appeared in just three games in September. As a hitter, he's coming off one of the greatest offensive seasons in recent years, leading the majors in OPS with the eighth-highest weighted runs created metric since 2010. As a pitcher, he allowed the second-lowest batting average and had the fourth-highest strikeout rate among those with at least 100 innings pitched.
How can we give this anything but an A grade -- even at that almost unimaginable total dollar amount?
After all, Ohtani was arguably the most sought-after free agent in history. His 28.6 bWAR from 2021 to 2023 is the third-highest three-year stretch since 1980, trailing only Barry Bonds' 32.8 from 2001 to 2003 and Randy Johnson's 29.0 from 2000 to 2002. Every team would want Ohtani. In the end, he's going to the Dodgers, and even though he won't pitch in 2024 following elbow surgery, Ohtani received an incredible 10-year, $700 million contract.
The $700 million figure is absolutely stunning -- even factoring in Ohtani's off-the-field revenue he'll bring to the Dodgers. It's the largest guaranteed contract in MLB history, topping the $426.5 million deal Mike Trout signed with the Angels in 2019 (Julio Rodriguez's complex contract with the Mariners could top out at $469.3 million based on various incentives and options). At $70 million per season, his annual average salary obliterates the previous high of $43.3 million shared by Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander (on much shorter deals). The number will be analyzed and criticized and no doubt leave fans of small-market teams angry and disgusted and left to wonder how they can compete with this behemoth in Chavez Ravine.
It's not a surprise that Ohtani will now head north on I-5 for his home games. The Dodgers were the betting favorites at the onset of the offseason, and they offer the winning franchise that Ohtani never experienced in his six seasons with the Angels. The Dodgers have won 100 games four times in the past five seasons, an unprecedented stretch that would have been five in a row if not for the shortened COVID-19 season. In the past three years, however, they've fallen frustratingly short in the postseason, including exits in the division series each of the past two years. Despite all that success, despite 11 straight trips to the playoffs since 2013, they've yet to win a World Series in a full, 162-game season. The belief is Ohtani is the missing juice they need in October.
The Dodgers have spent a couple of years clearing a path to sign him. They didn't sign any big free agents last year, lowering their payroll to about $158 million entering this offseason -- much lower than the sport's other big spenders. Only Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman are signed beyond 2025, creating the long-term flexibility to fit Ohtani's salary. And while the Dodgers annually run one of the highest payrolls in the sport, they've also been disciplined in free agency under Andrew Friedman: The only $100 million free agents during the Friedman regime have been Freeman and Trevor Bauer and even Bauer was just a three-year contract (they did trade for Betts and then gave him a mega-extension).
Indeed: Ohtani is simply so good the Dodgers were willing to break their own rules.
For 2024, the Dodgers add Ohtani to Betts and Freeman to provide potentially one of the best offensive trios in MLB history. All three were at least 50 runs better than the average hitter in adjusted batting runs this past season via Baseball-Reference: Betts at +56, Freeman at +55 and Ohtani at +54. Only one team since 1900 has done that, the 1929 Yankees with Babe Ruth, Lou Gehrig and Tony Lazzeri. Even the Braves, with an offense in 2023 that posted the highest slugging percentage of all time, had just two such players in Ronald Acuna Jr. (+63) and Matt Olson (+52). Atlanta's third-best hitter was Marcell Ozuna at +28. How about Ohtani hitting leadoff, followed by Betts, Freeman, Will Smith and Max Muncy? That's a lineup that can go toe-to-toe with the Braves for best in the game.
Of course, that $700 million comes with enormous risk, no matter how spectacular Ohtani was the past three seasons. Just look at last offseason, when Manny Machado ($350 million), Trea Turner ($300 million), Xander Bogaerts ($280 million) and Carlos Correa ($200 million) signed megadeals and produced less-than-stellar results that already puts the long-term viability of those contracts in peril. With Ohtani, the worst-case scenario is he never returns to top form as a pitcher and all his value comes as a designated hitter (with the possibility he plays outfield or first base if he can no longer pitch).
So maybe he's David Ortiz. That's a nice fallback -- but a DH isn't worth $70 million a season. The Dodgers were nonetheless willing to gamble on a record-breaking deal. Still, it puts enormous pressure on Ohtani to keep hitting like he did in 2023.
What can we expect from Ohtani as a hitter? I checked the best hitters since 2000 during their age 26-to-28 seasons, using adjusted batting runs. Ohtani comes in 10th on the list at +124 runs. Albert Pujols tops the list at +177 runs. Obviously, the Dodgers hope Ohtani remains an elite run producer for at least the first half of the contract and deep into the second half. In looking at the other eight hitters on this list (excluding Trout, who hasn't played five seasons yet since his age 26-to-28 stretch), six of the eight remained elite run producers on average from their age-29 through age-33 seasons, although with some decline built in:
Pujols: From +59 runs (ages 26-28) to +38 (ages 29-33)
Todd Helton: From +54 to +41
Miguel Cabrera: From +53 to +47
Joey Votto: From +49 to +44
Ryan Braun: From +42 to +14
Lance Berkman: From +42 to +35
Andrew McCutchen: From +42 to +12
Alex Rodriguez: From +42 to +45
If there's one thing Ohtani has shown us, however, it's to not bet against him. There are reasons to believe he can maintain his 2023 level at the plate: (1) He's improved his strikeout rate from 29.6% in 2021 to 23.9% in 2023, with a corresponding improvement in strikeout-to-walk ratio; (2) He's become especially proficient at hunting out and crushing four-seam fastballs, hitting .402 and slugging .818 in 2023 (the best OPS in the majors against four-seamers); (3) His raw power, conditioning and drive to succeed are unparalleled; (4) He's going to an organization that has excelled in getting the most out of its hitters.
What we don't know is how well Ohtani's body will respond to his two-way performances as he ages into his 30s. Not only did he undergo his second major elbow surgery, but he missed the final month of hitting due to an oblique injury. He also left a couple of games during the season because of dehydration and cramps. This is a guy who played 155 games in 2021 and 157 in 2022 while pitching at least 130 innings each of the past three seasons. While Ohtani is an impressive athlete, for the first time we saw the wear and tear catch up to him.
Still ... it's Ohtani. The Dodgers are more than happy to bet on his continued domination as a hitter and his recovery as a pitcher. Betts is 31 and Freeman is 34, but they just finished second and third in the NL MVP voting, so they project to remain formidable forces for the near future. The Dodgers will have to reconstruct their starting rotation as Tony Gonsolin and Dustin May are out for 2024, but they're getting Walker Buehler back and still have payroll room to add a free agent starter or two and do have an intriguing group of young starters, including Bobby Miller, Ryan Pepiot and Emmet Sheehan, plus prospects like Nick Frasso, Gavin Stone, River Ryan and Landon Knack who could all pitch in the majors this season.
Before Ohtani, the most desirable free agent of all time was Alex Rodriguez, who was just 25 when the Rangers signed him ahead of the 2001 season to a then mind-blowing $252 million contract ($438 million in today's dollars). The Rangers couldn't build a team around him -- A-Rod took up too much of the payroll -- and after three seasons, they traded him to the Yankees.
That's not going to happen with the Dodgers. This is an organization that has manifestly shown it knows how to keep the cycle of winning going. They just signed the best player in the sport to ensure that continues.